Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates
Conventional water infrastructure designs for flood and low flows are usually based on the assumption of stationarity of extreme events. However, recent evidence suggests that the influences of climate variability and human activities have made the hypothesis of stationarity questionable. In this st...
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/100127 2023-05-15T15:17:21+02:00 Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates ENEngelskEnglishNonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates Wang, Menghao Jiang, Shanhu Ren, Liliang Xu, Chong-Yu Shi, Peng Yuan, Shanshui Liu, Yi Fang, Xiuqin 2022 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100127 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128266 EN eng Wang, Menghao Jiang, Shanhu Ren, Liliang Xu, Chong-Yu Shi, Peng Yuan, Shanshui Liu, Yi Fang, Xiuqin . Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates. Journal of Hydrology. 2022, 612 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100127 2064559 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal of Hydrology&rft.volume=612&rft.spage=&rft.date=2022 Journal of Hydrology 612 0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128266 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ CC-BY-NC-ND 0022-1694 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed AcceptedVersion 2022 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128266 2023-02-22T23:36:45Z Conventional water infrastructure designs for flood and low flows are usually based on the assumption of stationarity of extreme events. However, recent evidence suggests that the influences of climate variability and human activities have made the hypothesis of stationarity questionable. In this study, we used the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) to construct a nonstationary model in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of climatic variables (i.e., climate indices and precipitation) and/or the reservoir index (RI). The nonstationary models were then used to analyse annual flood and low flow frequency at four hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin, including Dapoling (DPL), Changtaiguan (CTG), Zhuganpu (ZGP), and Xixian (XX) stations. Annual floods were represented by the maximum daily streamflow in each year, and low flows were represented by the 95th quantile of the daily streamflow (Q95) in each year. The change point and trend analysis revealed that the flood series of the ZGP station and the low flow series of the DPL and XX stations exhibited significant downward and upward trends (p < 0.1)), respectively. The low flow series of the ZGP station showed a significant change point in 1980 (p < 0.1). GAMLSS modelling results showed that, in comparison with stationary models, nonstationary models that included precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation climate index as covariates for the gamma distribution location parameter provided a superior description of the flood series at the four stations. Nonstationary models that incorporated precipitation and/or RI as covariates for the Weibull distribution parameters fit the low flow series better than stationary models at all stations. Furthermore, we found that nonstationary models outperformed stationary models in terms of flood frequency analysis, covering all flood observation points and capturing the generally decreasing trend in flood series, as well ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Journal of Hydrology 612 128266 |
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Open Polar |
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Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
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ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Conventional water infrastructure designs for flood and low flows are usually based on the assumption of stationarity of extreme events. However, recent evidence suggests that the influences of climate variability and human activities have made the hypothesis of stationarity questionable. In this study, we used the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) to construct a nonstationary model in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of climatic variables (i.e., climate indices and precipitation) and/or the reservoir index (RI). The nonstationary models were then used to analyse annual flood and low flow frequency at four hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin, including Dapoling (DPL), Changtaiguan (CTG), Zhuganpu (ZGP), and Xixian (XX) stations. Annual floods were represented by the maximum daily streamflow in each year, and low flows were represented by the 95th quantile of the daily streamflow (Q95) in each year. The change point and trend analysis revealed that the flood series of the ZGP station and the low flow series of the DPL and XX stations exhibited significant downward and upward trends (p < 0.1)), respectively. The low flow series of the ZGP station showed a significant change point in 1980 (p < 0.1). GAMLSS modelling results showed that, in comparison with stationary models, nonstationary models that included precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation climate index as covariates for the gamma distribution location parameter provided a superior description of the flood series at the four stations. Nonstationary models that incorporated precipitation and/or RI as covariates for the Weibull distribution parameters fit the low flow series better than stationary models at all stations. Furthermore, we found that nonstationary models outperformed stationary models in terms of flood frequency analysis, covering all flood observation points and capturing the generally decreasing trend in flood series, as well ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Menghao Jiang, Shanhu Ren, Liliang Xu, Chong-Yu Shi, Peng Yuan, Shanshui Liu, Yi Fang, Xiuqin |
spellingShingle |
Wang, Menghao Jiang, Shanhu Ren, Liliang Xu, Chong-Yu Shi, Peng Yuan, Shanshui Liu, Yi Fang, Xiuqin Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates |
author_facet |
Wang, Menghao Jiang, Shanhu Ren, Liliang Xu, Chong-Yu Shi, Peng Yuan, Shanshui Liu, Yi Fang, Xiuqin |
author_sort |
Wang, Menghao |
title |
Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates |
title_short |
Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates |
title_full |
Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates |
title_fullStr |
Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates |
title_sort |
nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of huaihe river basin, china, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100127 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128266 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
0022-1694 |
op_relation |
Wang, Menghao Jiang, Shanhu Ren, Liliang Xu, Chong-Yu Shi, Peng Yuan, Shanshui Liu, Yi Fang, Xiuqin . Nonstationary flood and low flow frequency analysis in the upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China, using climatic variables and reservoir index as covariates. Journal of Hydrology. 2022, 612 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100127 2064559 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal of Hydrology&rft.volume=612&rft.spage=&rft.date=2022 Journal of Hydrology 612 0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128266 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128266 |
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Journal of Hydrology |
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612 |
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128266 |
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