Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes
Browning of Fennoscandian boreal lakes is raising concerns for negative ecosystem impacts as well as reduced drinking water quality. Declined sulfur deposition and warmer climate, along with afforestation, other climate impacts and less outfield grazing, have resulted in increased fluxes of Total Or...
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/100126 2023-05-15T16:12:53+02:00 Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes ENEngelskEnglishSpatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes Crapart, Camille Marie Finstad, Anders Gravbrøt Dag Olav, Hessen Vogt, Rolf David Andersen, Tom 2023-02-04T16:59:33Z http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100126 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161676 EN eng Crapart, Camille Marie Finstad, Anders Gravbrøt Dag Olav, Hessen Vogt, Rolf David Andersen, Tom . Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes. Science of the Total Environment. 2023 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100126 2123029 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Science of the Total Environment&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2023 Science of the Total Environment 870 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161676 Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY 0048-9697 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed PublishedVersion 2023 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161676 2023-02-22T23:36:45Z Browning of Fennoscandian boreal lakes is raising concerns for negative ecosystem impacts as well as reduced drinking water quality. Declined sulfur deposition and warmer climate, along with afforestation, other climate impacts and less outfield grazing, have resulted in increased fluxes of Total Organic Carbon (TOC) from catchments to freshwater, and subsequently to coastal waters. This study assesses the major governing factors for increased TOC levels among several catchment characteristics in almost 5000 Fennoscandian lakes and catchments. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy for plant biomass, and the proportions of peatland in the catchment, along with surface runoff intensity and nitrogen deposition loading, were identified as the main spatial predictors for lake TOC concentrations. A multiple linear model, based on these explanatory variables, was used to simulate future TOC concentration in surface runoff from coastal drainage basins in 2050 and 2100, using the forecasts of climatic variables in two of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP): 1-2.6 (+2 °C) and 3-7.0 (+4,5 °C). These scenarios yield contrasting effects. SSP 1-2.6 predicts an overall decrease of TOC export to coastal waters, while SSP 3-7.0 in contrast leads to an increase in TOC export. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandian Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Browning ENVELOPE(164.050,164.050,-74.617,-74.617) Science of The Total Environment 870 161676 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
Browning of Fennoscandian boreal lakes is raising concerns for negative ecosystem impacts as well as reduced drinking water quality. Declined sulfur deposition and warmer climate, along with afforestation, other climate impacts and less outfield grazing, have resulted in increased fluxes of Total Organic Carbon (TOC) from catchments to freshwater, and subsequently to coastal waters. This study assesses the major governing factors for increased TOC levels among several catchment characteristics in almost 5000 Fennoscandian lakes and catchments. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy for plant biomass, and the proportions of peatland in the catchment, along with surface runoff intensity and nitrogen deposition loading, were identified as the main spatial predictors for lake TOC concentrations. A multiple linear model, based on these explanatory variables, was used to simulate future TOC concentration in surface runoff from coastal drainage basins in 2050 and 2100, using the forecasts of climatic variables in two of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP): 1-2.6 (+2 °C) and 3-7.0 (+4,5 °C). These scenarios yield contrasting effects. SSP 1-2.6 predicts an overall decrease of TOC export to coastal waters, while SSP 3-7.0 in contrast leads to an increase in TOC export. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Crapart, Camille Marie Finstad, Anders Gravbrøt Dag Olav, Hessen Vogt, Rolf David Andersen, Tom |
spellingShingle |
Crapart, Camille Marie Finstad, Anders Gravbrøt Dag Olav, Hessen Vogt, Rolf David Andersen, Tom Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes |
author_facet |
Crapart, Camille Marie Finstad, Anders Gravbrøt Dag Olav, Hessen Vogt, Rolf David Andersen, Tom |
author_sort |
Crapart, Camille Marie |
title |
Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes |
title_short |
Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes |
title_full |
Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes |
title_fullStr |
Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes |
title_sort |
spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100126 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161676 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(164.050,164.050,-74.617,-74.617) |
geographic |
Browning |
geographic_facet |
Browning |
genre |
Fennoscandian |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandian |
op_source |
0048-9697 |
op_relation |
Crapart, Camille Marie Finstad, Anders Gravbrøt Dag Olav, Hessen Vogt, Rolf David Andersen, Tom . Spatial predictors and temporal forecast of total organic carbon levels in boreal lakes. Science of the Total Environment. 2023 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100126 2123029 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Science of the Total Environment&rft.volume=&rft.spage=&rft.date=2023 Science of the Total Environment 870 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161676 |
op_rights |
Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161676 |
container_title |
Science of The Total Environment |
container_volume |
870 |
container_start_page |
161676 |
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1765998491282178048 |