Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century
With the recent warming trend over Europe and the Arctic, the Nordic regions have experienced more frequent and damaging extreme hydrological events which are anticipated to increase towards the end of the 21st century. Despite explicit trends, large variations have been observed across basins and r...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100052 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128331 |
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ftoslouniv:oai:www.duo.uio.no:10852/100052 2023-05-15T15:12:02+02:00 Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century ENEngelskEnglishChanging flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century Huo, Ran Li, Lu Engeland, Kolbjørn Xu, Chong-Yu Chen, Hua Paasche, Øyvind Guo, Shenglian 2022 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100052 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128331 EN eng NFR/NS9001K NFR/274310 NFR/NN9280K NFR/269682 Huo, Ran Li, Lu Engeland, Kolbjørn Xu, Chong-Yu Chen, Hua Paasche, Øyvind Guo, Shenglian . Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century. Journal of Hydrology. 2022, 613 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100052 2052388 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal of Hydrology&rft.volume=613&rft.spage=&rft.date=2022 Journal of Hydrology 613 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128331 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ CC-BY-NC-ND 0022-1694 Journal article Tidsskriftartikkel Peer reviewed AcceptedVersion 2022 ftoslouniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128331 2023-02-22T23:36:43Z With the recent warming trend over Europe and the Arctic, the Nordic regions have experienced more frequent and damaging extreme hydrological events which are anticipated to increase towards the end of the 21st century. Despite explicit trends, large variations have been observed across basins and regions when it comes to precipitation and floods hinting at a strong natural hydroclimatic variability that further complicates any assessment of potential future changes. In this study, we aim to better understand how climate variability links with the current extremes and future projections of floods in Norway in the context of the last millennium and the future. Specifically, we simulate over 1000 years (850–2099) daily discharge and floods at 34 catchments over five regions of Norway from the last millennium (including a warm period and a cold period; 850–1849) to the end of the 21st century by an ensemble model-chain method including four global climate models (GCMs), two bias-correction methods and two hydrological models. The modelling results show (i) all GCMs except MIROC-ESM simulate a higher mean temperature in Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period than Little Ice Age (LIA) period, while simulated annual precipitation varies a lot in different GCMs and catchments, (ii) no significant change of flood characteristics during the last millennium from ensemble-mean results, (iii) in future, we will have an extraordinary shift in flood seasonality and generating processes, and flood frequency increase in most of the study catchments in Norway, and (iv) climate projections represent the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in the projected changes in hydrological extremes for most of the catchments. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) Arctic Norway Journal of Hydrology 613 128331 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Universitet i Oslo: Digitale utgivelser ved UiO (DUO) |
op_collection_id |
ftoslouniv |
language |
English |
description |
With the recent warming trend over Europe and the Arctic, the Nordic regions have experienced more frequent and damaging extreme hydrological events which are anticipated to increase towards the end of the 21st century. Despite explicit trends, large variations have been observed across basins and regions when it comes to precipitation and floods hinting at a strong natural hydroclimatic variability that further complicates any assessment of potential future changes. In this study, we aim to better understand how climate variability links with the current extremes and future projections of floods in Norway in the context of the last millennium and the future. Specifically, we simulate over 1000 years (850–2099) daily discharge and floods at 34 catchments over five regions of Norway from the last millennium (including a warm period and a cold period; 850–1849) to the end of the 21st century by an ensemble model-chain method including four global climate models (GCMs), two bias-correction methods and two hydrological models. The modelling results show (i) all GCMs except MIROC-ESM simulate a higher mean temperature in Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period than Little Ice Age (LIA) period, while simulated annual precipitation varies a lot in different GCMs and catchments, (ii) no significant change of flood characteristics during the last millennium from ensemble-mean results, (iii) in future, we will have an extraordinary shift in flood seasonality and generating processes, and flood frequency increase in most of the study catchments in Norway, and (iv) climate projections represent the largest contribution to overall uncertainty in the projected changes in hydrological extremes for most of the catchments. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Huo, Ran Li, Lu Engeland, Kolbjørn Xu, Chong-Yu Chen, Hua Paasche, Øyvind Guo, Shenglian |
spellingShingle |
Huo, Ran Li, Lu Engeland, Kolbjørn Xu, Chong-Yu Chen, Hua Paasche, Øyvind Guo, Shenglian Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century |
author_facet |
Huo, Ran Li, Lu Engeland, Kolbjørn Xu, Chong-Yu Chen, Hua Paasche, Øyvind Guo, Shenglian |
author_sort |
Huo, Ran |
title |
Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century |
title_short |
Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century |
title_full |
Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century |
title_sort |
changing flood dynamics in norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100052 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128331 |
geographic |
Arctic Norway |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Norway |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
0022-1694 |
op_relation |
NFR/NS9001K NFR/274310 NFR/NN9280K NFR/269682 Huo, Ran Li, Lu Engeland, Kolbjørn Xu, Chong-Yu Chen, Hua Paasche, Øyvind Guo, Shenglian . Changing flood dynamics in Norway since the last millennium and to the end of the 21st century. Journal of Hydrology. 2022, 613 http://hdl.handle.net/10852/100052 2052388 info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Journal of Hydrology&rft.volume=613&rft.spage=&rft.date=2022 Journal of Hydrology 613 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128331 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128331 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrology |
container_volume |
613 |
container_start_page |
128331 |
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1766342786040201216 |