Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models
Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth...
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ftoskarbordeaux:oai:oskar-bordeaux.fr:20.500.12278/76743 2023-05-15T15:07:06+02:00 Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models SGUBIN, Giovanni SWINGEDOUW, Didier DRIJFHOUT, Sybren MARY, Yannick BENNABI, Amine 2017-04 https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/76743 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12278/76743 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 en eng Nature Publishing Group 2041-1723 https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/76743 doi:10.1038/ncomms14375 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologie Article de revue 2017 ftoskarbordeaux https://doi.org/20.500.12278/76743 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 2022-11-29T23:30:27Z Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling - Phase 2 Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat Other/Unknown Material Arctic Climate change North Atlantic OSKAR Bordeaux (Open Science Knowledge ARchive) Arctic Laplace ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) Nature Communications 8 1 |
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Open Polar |
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OSKAR Bordeaux (Open Science Knowledge ARchive) |
op_collection_id |
ftoskarbordeaux |
language |
English |
topic |
Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologie |
spellingShingle |
Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologie SGUBIN, Giovanni SWINGEDOUW, Didier DRIJFHOUT, Sybren MARY, Yannick BENNABI, Amine Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
topic_facet |
Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Climatologie |
description |
Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy. LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes Earth system Model Bias Reduction and assessing Abrupt Climate change Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling - Phase 2 Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
SGUBIN, Giovanni SWINGEDOUW, Didier DRIJFHOUT, Sybren MARY, Yannick BENNABI, Amine |
author_facet |
SGUBIN, Giovanni SWINGEDOUW, Didier DRIJFHOUT, Sybren MARY, Yannick BENNABI, Amine |
author_sort |
SGUBIN, Giovanni |
title |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_short |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_full |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_fullStr |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models |
title_sort |
abrupt cooling over the north atlantic in modern climate models |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/76743 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12278/76743 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
geographic |
Arctic Laplace |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Laplace |
genre |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic |
op_relation |
2041-1723 https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/76743 doi:10.1038/ncomms14375 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.12278/76743 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14375 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766338673323802624 |