Unanticipated biological changes and global warming
Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-cli...
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ftoskarbordeaux:oai:oskar-bordeaux.fr:20.500.12278/27588 2023-05-15T15:48:03+02:00 Unanticipated biological changes and global warming BEAUGRAND, Gregory 2012-01-20 https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/27588 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 en eng Inter Research 0171-8630 https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/27588 doi:10.3354/meps09493 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Océanographie Article de revue 2012 ftoskarbordeaux https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 2021-05-11T22:30:23Z Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-climatological variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was negatively correlated with the mean abundance of one of the subarctic key species Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea. This correlation was thought to have broken down in 1996, however, the timing has never been tested statistically. The present study revisits this unanticipated change and reveals that the correlation did not break down in 1996 as originally proposed but earlier, at the time of an abrupt ecosystem shift in the North Sea in the 1980s. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrate that the correlation between the NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance is modulated by the thermal regime of the North Sea, which in turn covaries positively with global temperature anomalies. This study thereby provides evidence that global climate change is likely to alter some empirical relationships found in the past between species abundance or the ecosystem state and large-scale natural sources of hydro-climatological variability. A theory is proposed to explain how this might happen. These unanticipated changes, also called 'surprises' in climatic research, are a direct consequence of the complexity of both climatic and biological systems. In this period of rapid climate change, it is therefore hazardous to integrate meteo-oceanic indices such as the NAO in models used in the management of living resources, as it has been sometimes attempted in the past. Other/Unknown Material Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Subarctic OSKAR Bordeaux (Open Science Knowledge ARchive) Marine Ecology Progress Series 445 293 301 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
OSKAR Bordeaux (Open Science Knowledge ARchive) |
op_collection_id |
ftoskarbordeaux |
language |
English |
topic |
Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Océanographie |
spellingShingle |
Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Océanographie BEAUGRAND, Gregory Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
topic_facet |
Planète et Univers [physics]/Sciences de la Terre/Océanographie |
description |
Evidence of global warming is now unequivocal, and studies suggest that it has started to influence natural systems of the planet, including the oceans. However, in the marine environment, it is well-known that species and ecosystems can also be influenced by natural sources of large-scale hydro-climatological variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was negatively correlated with the mean abundance of one of the subarctic key species Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea. This correlation was thought to have broken down in 1996, however, the timing has never been tested statistically. The present study revisits this unanticipated change and reveals that the correlation did not break down in 1996 as originally proposed but earlier, at the time of an abrupt ecosystem shift in the North Sea in the 1980s. Furthermore, the analyses demonstrate that the correlation between the NAO and C. finmarchicus abundance is modulated by the thermal regime of the North Sea, which in turn covaries positively with global temperature anomalies. This study thereby provides evidence that global climate change is likely to alter some empirical relationships found in the past between species abundance or the ecosystem state and large-scale natural sources of hydro-climatological variability. A theory is proposed to explain how this might happen. These unanticipated changes, also called 'surprises' in climatic research, are a direct consequence of the complexity of both climatic and biological systems. In this period of rapid climate change, it is therefore hazardous to integrate meteo-oceanic indices such as the NAO in models used in the management of living resources, as it has been sometimes attempted in the past. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
BEAUGRAND, Gregory |
author_facet |
BEAUGRAND, Gregory |
author_sort |
BEAUGRAND, Gregory |
title |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_short |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_full |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_fullStr |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
title_sort |
unanticipated biological changes and global warming |
publisher |
Inter Research |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/27588 https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 |
genre |
Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Subarctic |
op_relation |
0171-8630 https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/27588 doi:10.3354/meps09493 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3354/meps09493 |
container_title |
Marine Ecology Progress Series |
container_volume |
445 |
container_start_page |
293 |
op_container_end_page |
301 |
_version_ |
1766383045594578944 |