Multispecies integrated population model reveals bottom‐up dynamics in a seabird predator–prey system

• Published in: Ecological Monographs
• Main Authors: QUÉROUÉ, Maud, BARBRAUD, Christophe, BARRAQUAND, Frédéric, TUREK, Daniel, DELORD, Karine, PACOUREAU, Nathan, GIMENEZ, Olivier
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Ecological Society of America 2021
• Subjects: Bayesian inference; Demography; Environmental variations; Integrated Population Model; Matrix population model; Nimble; Predator–Prey interactions; Sciences de l'environnement; Brown Skua; Kerguelen Islands; Southern Ocean
• Online Access: https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/191452; https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12278/191452; https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1459

Assessing the effects of climate and interspecific relationships on communities is challenging because of the complex interplay between species population dynamics, their interactions, and the need to integrate information across several biological levels (individuals – populations – communities). Usually used to quantify single‐species demography, integrated population models (IPMs) have recently been extended to communities. These models allow fitting multispecies matrix models to data from multiple sources while simultaneously accounting for uncertainty in each data source. We used multispecies IPMs accommodating climatic variables to quantify the relative contribution of climate vs. interspecific interactions on demographic parameters, such as survival and breeding success, in the dynamics of a predator–prey system. We considered a stage‐structured predator–prey system combining 22 years of capture–recapture data and population counts of two seabirds, the Brown Skua (Catharacta lönnbergi) and its main prey the Blue Petrel (Halobaena caerulea), both breeding on the Kerguelen Islands in the Southern Ocean. Our results showed that climate and predator–prey interactions drive the demography of skuas and petrels in different ways. The breeding success of skuas appeared to be largely driven by the number of petrels and to a lesser extent by intraspecific density‐dependence. In contrast, there was no evidence of predation effects on the demographic parameters of petrels, which were affected by oceanographic factors. We conclude that bottom‐up mechanisms are the main drivers of this skua–petrel system. Effets de la gestion et du climat sur la dynamique des communautés - Développement d'une démographie multi-espèce.