Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems
In this review paper, we explore latest results concerning a few key tipping elements of the Earth system in the ocean, cryosphere, and land realms, namely the Atlantic overturning circulation and the subpolar gyre system, the marine ecosystems, the permafrost, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets...
Published in: | Surveys in Geophysics |
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Online Access: | https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/187309 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12278/187309 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6 |
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ftoskarbordeaux:oai:oskar-bordeaux.fr:20.500.12278/187309 2024-02-11T09:56:08+01:00 Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems SWINGEDOUW, Didier IFEJIKA SPERANZA, Chinwe BARTSCH, Annett DURAND, Gael JAMET, Cedric BEAUGRAND, Gregory CONVERSI, Alessandra 2020-11 https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/187309 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12278/187309 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6 EN eng https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/187309 doi:10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6 open Pas de Licence CC Tipping point Tipping element Remote sensing Earth observation Atlantic AMOC SPG Marine biology Permafrost Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets Land use Terrestrial resource use Early warning Bifurcation Climate dynamics Planète et Univers [physics] N°spécial de revue/special issue 2020 ftoskarbordeaux https://doi.org/20.500.12278/18730910.1007/s10712-020-09604-6 2024-01-23T23:30:51Z In this review paper, we explore latest results concerning a few key tipping elements of the Earth system in the ocean, cryosphere, and land realms, namely the Atlantic overturning circulation and the subpolar gyre system, the marine ecosystems, the permafrost, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and in terrestrial resource use systems. All these different tipping elements share common characteristics related to their nonlinear nature. They can also interact with each other leading to synergies that can lead to cascading tipping points. Even if the probability of each tipping event is low, they can happen relatively rapidly, involve multiple variables, and have large societal impacts. Therefore, adaptation measures and management in general should extend their focus beyond slow and continuous changes, into abrupt, nonlinear, possibly cascading, high impact phenomena. Remote sensing observations are found to be decisive in the understanding and determination of early warning signals of many tipping elements. Nevertheless, considerable research still remains to properly incorporate these data in the current generation of coupled Earth system models. This is a key prerequisite to correctly develop robust decadal prediction systems that may help to assess the risk of crossing thresholds potentially crucial for society. The prediction of tipping points remains difficult, notably due to stochastic resonance, i.e. the interaction between natural variability and anthropogenic forcing, asking for large ensembles of predictions to correctly assess the risks. Furthermore, evaluating the proximity to crucial thresholds using process-based understanding of each system remains a key aspect to be developed for an improved assessment of such risks. This paper finally proposes a few research avenues concerning the use of remote sensing data and the need for combining different sources of data, and having long and precise-enough time series of the key variables needed to monitor Earth system tipping elements. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice permafrost OSKAR Bordeaux (Open Science Knowledge ARchive) Antarctic Greenland Surveys in Geophysics 41 6 1237 1284 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OSKAR Bordeaux (Open Science Knowledge ARchive) |
op_collection_id |
ftoskarbordeaux |
language |
English |
topic |
Tipping point Tipping element Remote sensing Earth observation Atlantic AMOC SPG Marine biology Permafrost Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets Land use Terrestrial resource use Early warning Bifurcation Climate dynamics Planète et Univers [physics] |
spellingShingle |
Tipping point Tipping element Remote sensing Earth observation Atlantic AMOC SPG Marine biology Permafrost Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets Land use Terrestrial resource use Early warning Bifurcation Climate dynamics Planète et Univers [physics] SWINGEDOUW, Didier IFEJIKA SPERANZA, Chinwe BARTSCH, Annett DURAND, Gael JAMET, Cedric BEAUGRAND, Gregory CONVERSI, Alessandra Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems |
topic_facet |
Tipping point Tipping element Remote sensing Earth observation Atlantic AMOC SPG Marine biology Permafrost Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets Land use Terrestrial resource use Early warning Bifurcation Climate dynamics Planète et Univers [physics] |
description |
In this review paper, we explore latest results concerning a few key tipping elements of the Earth system in the ocean, cryosphere, and land realms, namely the Atlantic overturning circulation and the subpolar gyre system, the marine ecosystems, the permafrost, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and in terrestrial resource use systems. All these different tipping elements share common characteristics related to their nonlinear nature. They can also interact with each other leading to synergies that can lead to cascading tipping points. Even if the probability of each tipping event is low, they can happen relatively rapidly, involve multiple variables, and have large societal impacts. Therefore, adaptation measures and management in general should extend their focus beyond slow and continuous changes, into abrupt, nonlinear, possibly cascading, high impact phenomena. Remote sensing observations are found to be decisive in the understanding and determination of early warning signals of many tipping elements. Nevertheless, considerable research still remains to properly incorporate these data in the current generation of coupled Earth system models. This is a key prerequisite to correctly develop robust decadal prediction systems that may help to assess the risk of crossing thresholds potentially crucial for society. The prediction of tipping points remains difficult, notably due to stochastic resonance, i.e. the interaction between natural variability and anthropogenic forcing, asking for large ensembles of predictions to correctly assess the risks. Furthermore, evaluating the proximity to crucial thresholds using process-based understanding of each system remains a key aspect to be developed for an improved assessment of such risks. This paper finally proposes a few research avenues concerning the use of remote sensing data and the need for combining different sources of data, and having long and precise-enough time series of the key variables needed to monitor Earth system tipping elements. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
SWINGEDOUW, Didier IFEJIKA SPERANZA, Chinwe BARTSCH, Annett DURAND, Gael JAMET, Cedric BEAUGRAND, Gregory CONVERSI, Alessandra |
author_facet |
SWINGEDOUW, Didier IFEJIKA SPERANZA, Chinwe BARTSCH, Annett DURAND, Gael JAMET, Cedric BEAUGRAND, Gregory CONVERSI, Alessandra |
author_sort |
SWINGEDOUW, Didier |
title |
Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems |
title_short |
Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems |
title_full |
Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems |
title_fullStr |
Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems |
title_sort |
early warning from space for a few key tipping points in physical, biological, and social-ecological systems |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/187309 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12278/187309 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice permafrost |
op_relation |
https://oskar-bordeaux.fr/handle/20.500.12278/187309 doi:10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6 |
op_rights |
open Pas de Licence CC |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.12278/18730910.1007/s10712-020-09604-6 |
container_title |
Surveys in Geophysics |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1237 |
op_container_end_page |
1284 |
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1790600845411221504 |