Exchange rates, exchange risk and U.S. codfish imports

• Main Author: Zhang, Dengjun
• Format: Report
• Language: English; unknown
• Published: International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade
• Subjects: Imports > United States; Foreign exchange rates; Codfish; Canada; Norway; Johansen; Iceland
• Online Access: https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/conference_proceedings_or_journals/ht24wk34r

The effects of exchange rates and risk on U.S. codfish imports from Canada, China, Norway and Iceland are examined in the context of the Armington framework. The exchange rate volatility is measured by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method. The nonstationarities of time-series data are explicitly taken into account by employing the Johansen test, the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Significant long-run effects of exchange rate volatilities and competing suppliers’ currency uncertainties are supported by the data and cointegration tests. However short-run effects of volatilities cannot be verified by the relevant error correction models (ECM). The estimation results also show that the long-run impact of exchange rate on the import demand is generally larger than that of the relative price. The empirical results in general indicate the important impacts of exchange rates and risk on the U.S. codfish imports. Keywords: Seafood Processing and International Trade, Fisheries Economics, Markets and Trade