An Iterated Multiyear Simulation Model to Assess Impacts of Halibut Bycatch Limits
Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands (BSAI) groundfish fisheries are hugely productive with 2008 – 2014 harvests averaging 1.6 million tons and generating $1.95 billion annually. The BSAI also hosts a commercial halibut fishery with 2013 landings of 3,500 tons and revenues of $41.5 million. Downward trends i...
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ftoregonstate:ir.library.oregonstate.edu:d791sh42j 2024-04-14T08:09:50+00:00 An Iterated Multiyear Simulation Model to Assess Impacts of Halibut Bycatch Limits Hartley, Marcus https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/conference_proceedings_or_journals/d791sh42j English [eng] eng unknown North American Association of Fisheries Economists https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/conference_proceedings_or_journals/d791sh42j Copyright Not Evaluated Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- Congresses Sustainable fisheries -- Congresses Presentation ftoregonstate 2024-03-21T15:54:02Z Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands (BSAI) groundfish fisheries are hugely productive with 2008 – 2014 harvests averaging 1.6 million tons and generating $1.95 billion annually. The BSAI also hosts a commercial halibut fishery with 2013 landings of 3,500 tons and revenues of $41.5 million. Downward trends in halibut biomass combined with continued bycatch mortality in the groundfish fishery pushed the commercial harvests down to 2,000 tons in 2014, with lower harvest limits expected in 2015. Halibut bycatch mortality in the groundfish fisheries have exceeded commercial halibut harvests since 2012, and barring significant changes, bycatch will continue to exceed commercial harvests. An Iterated Multi-year Simulation (IMS) model was developed to assess future impacts to both the groundfish and commercial halibut fisheries of proposed reductions of up to 35 percent from current NMFS limits on bycatch mortality, established in the groundfish management plan. The IMS-model randomly selects from the basis years (2008 – 2013) to generate a simulated future from 2014 – 2023, in which the exploitable halibut biomass is held at 2014 estimates. Each randomly drawn year brings with it the halibut bycatch from that year, along with the groundfish harvests and revenue generated. Allowable future halibut harvests are estimated using the International Pacific Halibut Commission’s harvest policy algorithm, which nets out predicted bycatch mortality from exploitable biomass levels. After 10,000 iterations, the IMS-model yields distributions of expected bycatch and harvest levels, along with estimates of changes in the net present value of revenue over the 10-year future period for both the halibut and groundfish fisheries. Conference Object Bering Sea Aleutian Islands ScholarsArchive@OSU (Oregon State University) Bering Sea Pacific |
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ScholarsArchive@OSU (Oregon State University) |
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ftoregonstate |
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English unknown |
topic |
Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- Congresses Sustainable fisheries -- Congresses |
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Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- Congresses Sustainable fisheries -- Congresses Hartley, Marcus An Iterated Multiyear Simulation Model to Assess Impacts of Halibut Bycatch Limits |
topic_facet |
Fisheries -- Economic aspects -- Congresses Sustainable fisheries -- Congresses |
description |
Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands (BSAI) groundfish fisheries are hugely productive with 2008 – 2014 harvests averaging 1.6 million tons and generating $1.95 billion annually. The BSAI also hosts a commercial halibut fishery with 2013 landings of 3,500 tons and revenues of $41.5 million. Downward trends in halibut biomass combined with continued bycatch mortality in the groundfish fishery pushed the commercial harvests down to 2,000 tons in 2014, with lower harvest limits expected in 2015. Halibut bycatch mortality in the groundfish fisheries have exceeded commercial halibut harvests since 2012, and barring significant changes, bycatch will continue to exceed commercial harvests. An Iterated Multi-year Simulation (IMS) model was developed to assess future impacts to both the groundfish and commercial halibut fisheries of proposed reductions of up to 35 percent from current NMFS limits on bycatch mortality, established in the groundfish management plan. The IMS-model randomly selects from the basis years (2008 – 2013) to generate a simulated future from 2014 – 2023, in which the exploitable halibut biomass is held at 2014 estimates. Each randomly drawn year brings with it the halibut bycatch from that year, along with the groundfish harvests and revenue generated. Allowable future halibut harvests are estimated using the International Pacific Halibut Commission’s harvest policy algorithm, which nets out predicted bycatch mortality from exploitable biomass levels. After 10,000 iterations, the IMS-model yields distributions of expected bycatch and harvest levels, along with estimates of changes in the net present value of revenue over the 10-year future period for both the halibut and groundfish fisheries. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Hartley, Marcus |
author_facet |
Hartley, Marcus |
author_sort |
Hartley, Marcus |
title |
An Iterated Multiyear Simulation Model to Assess Impacts of Halibut Bycatch Limits |
title_short |
An Iterated Multiyear Simulation Model to Assess Impacts of Halibut Bycatch Limits |
title_full |
An Iterated Multiyear Simulation Model to Assess Impacts of Halibut Bycatch Limits |
title_fullStr |
An Iterated Multiyear Simulation Model to Assess Impacts of Halibut Bycatch Limits |
title_full_unstemmed |
An Iterated Multiyear Simulation Model to Assess Impacts of Halibut Bycatch Limits |
title_sort |
iterated multiyear simulation model to assess impacts of halibut bycatch limits |
publisher |
North American Association of Fisheries Economists |
url |
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/conference_proceedings_or_journals/d791sh42j |
geographic |
Bering Sea Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea Pacific |
genre |
Bering Sea Aleutian Islands |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea Aleutian Islands |
op_relation |
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/conference_proceedings_or_journals/d791sh42j |
op_rights |
Copyright Not Evaluated |
_version_ |
1796307316022181888 |