Predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices
Prediction of year-class strength is a critical challenge for fisheries managers. Theoretically, predictions of recruitment should be better when they are based on estimates of cohort size taken close to the age of recruitment and may improve if the effects of environmental factors that influence pr...
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ftoregonstate:ir.library.oregonstate.edu:3f462b183 2023-06-18T03:38:42+02:00 Predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices Stige, Leif Christian Hunsicker, Mary E. Bailey, Kevin M. Yaragina, Natalia A. Hunt, George L., Jr. https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/3f462b183 English [eng] eng Inter-Research https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/3f462b183 Copyright Not Evaluated Article ftoregonstate 2023-06-04T16:53:17Z Prediction of year-class strength is a critical challenge for fisheries managers. Theoretically, predictions of recruitment should be better when they are based on estimates of cohort size taken close to the age of recruitment and may improve if the effects of environmental factors that influence pre-recruit mortality are accounted for. In practice, measurement error and difficulties in establishing robust recruitment–environment relationships complicate the picture. For 5 fish stocks of 4 species in 3 ecosystems, we examined the usefulness of indices of juvenile abundance relative to larval abundance for predicting recruitment. Further, we examined whether the use of environmental covariates improved predictions. For 2 of 4 stocks with sufficient data (1 stock did not have larval data), juvenile abundance was a better predictor of recruitment compared to larval indices. For the 2 other stocks, we found that juvenile indices were not superior to larval indices, possibly because of error in the measurement of juvenile abundance. In all 5 of these stocks, regression analysis showed that inclusion of environmental correlates contributed significantly to explaining recruitment variation compared to models based on juvenile indices alone. Further, cross validation showed that forecasts of future recruitment were either improved or qualitatively unchanged by including environmental correlates. This was despite apparent nonstationarity in the recruitment–environment relationships; most of the environmental variables and pre-recruit abundance indices were significantly correlated with recruitment for only parts of the studied period. Such complex responses to environmental changes are difficult to anticipate, yet the environmental information should not be ignored altogether. Keywords: Northeast Arctic cod, Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock, Environmental covariates, Northeast Arctic haddock, Bering Sea walleye pollock, Barents Sea capelin, Predicting recruitment, Fish recruitment Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Bering Sea Northeast Arctic cod Alaska ScholarsArchive@OSU (Oregon State University) Arctic Barents Sea Bering Sea Gulf of Alaska |
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ftoregonstate |
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English |
description |
Prediction of year-class strength is a critical challenge for fisheries managers. Theoretically, predictions of recruitment should be better when they are based on estimates of cohort size taken close to the age of recruitment and may improve if the effects of environmental factors that influence pre-recruit mortality are accounted for. In practice, measurement error and difficulties in establishing robust recruitment–environment relationships complicate the picture. For 5 fish stocks of 4 species in 3 ecosystems, we examined the usefulness of indices of juvenile abundance relative to larval abundance for predicting recruitment. Further, we examined whether the use of environmental covariates improved predictions. For 2 of 4 stocks with sufficient data (1 stock did not have larval data), juvenile abundance was a better predictor of recruitment compared to larval indices. For the 2 other stocks, we found that juvenile indices were not superior to larval indices, possibly because of error in the measurement of juvenile abundance. In all 5 of these stocks, regression analysis showed that inclusion of environmental correlates contributed significantly to explaining recruitment variation compared to models based on juvenile indices alone. Further, cross validation showed that forecasts of future recruitment were either improved or qualitatively unchanged by including environmental correlates. This was despite apparent nonstationarity in the recruitment–environment relationships; most of the environmental variables and pre-recruit abundance indices were significantly correlated with recruitment for only parts of the studied period. Such complex responses to environmental changes are difficult to anticipate, yet the environmental information should not be ignored altogether. Keywords: Northeast Arctic cod, Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock, Environmental covariates, Northeast Arctic haddock, Bering Sea walleye pollock, Barents Sea capelin, Predicting recruitment, Fish recruitment |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stige, Leif Christian Hunsicker, Mary E. Bailey, Kevin M. Yaragina, Natalia A. Hunt, George L., Jr. |
spellingShingle |
Stige, Leif Christian Hunsicker, Mary E. Bailey, Kevin M. Yaragina, Natalia A. Hunt, George L., Jr. Predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices |
author_facet |
Stige, Leif Christian Hunsicker, Mary E. Bailey, Kevin M. Yaragina, Natalia A. Hunt, George L., Jr. |
author_sort |
Stige, Leif Christian |
title |
Predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices |
title_short |
Predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices |
title_full |
Predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices |
title_fullStr |
Predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices |
title_sort |
predicting fish recruitment from juvenile abundance and environmental indices |
publisher |
Inter-Research |
url |
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/3f462b183 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Bering Sea Gulf of Alaska |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Bering Sea Gulf of Alaska |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Bering Sea Northeast Arctic cod Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Bering Sea Northeast Arctic cod Alaska |
op_relation |
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/articles/3f462b183 |
op_rights |
Copyright Not Evaluated |
_version_ |
1769003584536444928 |