North Atlantic Cooling is Slowing Down Mass Loss of Icelandic Glaciers

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Noël, Brice, Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna, Pálsson, Finnur, Wouters, Bert, Lhermitte, Stef, Haacker, Jan M., van den Broeke, Michiel R.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: John Wiley and Sons Inc 2022
• Subjects: Blue Blob; climate projection; glaciers; Iceland; RACMO; surface mass balance; Icelandic glaciers; Icelands; Mass loss; Mass loss rate; North Atlantic; Regional cooling; Geophysics; Earth and Planetary Sciences (all); General Earth and Planetary Sciences; Physical; chemical; mathematical & earth Sciences; Earth sciences & physical geography; Physique; chimie; mathématiques & sciences de la terre; Sciences de la terre & géographie physique; glacier; Greenland
• Online Access: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/302198; https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/302198/1/Noel_2022_GRL.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095697

peer reviewed Icelandic glaciers have been losing mass since the Little Ice Age in the mid-to-late 1800s, with higher mass loss rates in the early 21st century, followed by a slowdown since 2011. As of yet, it remains unclear whether this mass loss slowdown will persist in the future. By reconstructing the contemporary (1958–2019) surface mass balance of Icelandic glaciers, we show that the post-2011 mass loss slowdown coincides with the development of the Blue Blob, an area of regional cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland. This regional cooling signal mitigates atmospheric warming in Iceland since 2011, in turn decreasing glacier mass loss through reduced meltwater runoff. In a future high-end warming scenario, North Atlantic cooling is projected to mitigate mass loss of Icelandic glaciers until the mid-2050s. High mass loss rates resume thereafter as the regional cooling signal weakens.