A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners
peer reviewed Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation plann...
Published in: | Earth's Future |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2022
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/296327 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/296327/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202022%20-%20Wal%20-%20A%20High%e2%80%90End%20Estimate%20of%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20for%20Practitioners.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002751 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/296327 2024-04-21T07:52:28+00:00 A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners van de Wal, R. S. W. Nicholls, R. J. Behar, D. McInnes, K. Stammer, D. Lowe, J. A. Church, J. A. DeConto, R. Fettweis, Xavier Goelzer, H. Haasnoot, M. Haigh, I. D. Hinkel, J. Horton, B. P. James, T. S. Jenkins, A. LeCozannet, G. Levermann, A. Lipscomb, W. H. Marzeion, B. Pattyn, F. Payne, A. J. Pfeffer, W. T. Price, S. F. Seroussi, H. Sun, S. Veatch, W. White, K. SPHERES - ULiège 2022-11 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/296327 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/296327/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202022%20-%20Wal%20-%20A%20High%e2%80%90End%20Estimate%20of%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20for%20Practitioners.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002751 en eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022EF002751 urn:issn:2328-4277 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/296327 info:hdl:2268/296327 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/296327/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202022%20-%20Wal%20-%20A%20High%e2%80%90End%20Estimate%20of%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20for%20Practitioners.pdf doi:10.1029/2022ef002751 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85143286560 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Earth's Future, 10 (11) (2022-11) Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) General Environmental Science Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2022 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002751 2024-03-27T14:57:31Z peer reviewed Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Ice Shelf University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Earth's Future 10 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) General Environmental Science Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) General Environmental Science Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique van de Wal, R. S. W. Nicholls, R. J. Behar, D. McInnes, K. Stammer, D. Lowe, J. A. Church, J. A. DeConto, R. Fettweis, Xavier Goelzer, H. Haasnoot, M. Haigh, I. D. Hinkel, J. Horton, B. P. James, T. S. Jenkins, A. LeCozannet, G. Levermann, A. Lipscomb, W. H. Marzeion, B. Pattyn, F. Payne, A. J. Pfeffer, W. T. Price, S. F. Seroussi, H. Sun, S. Veatch, W. White, K. A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners |
topic_facet |
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) General Environmental Science Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR. |
author2 |
SPHERES - ULiège |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van de Wal, R. S. W. Nicholls, R. J. Behar, D. McInnes, K. Stammer, D. Lowe, J. A. Church, J. A. DeConto, R. Fettweis, Xavier Goelzer, H. Haasnoot, M. Haigh, I. D. Hinkel, J. Horton, B. P. James, T. S. Jenkins, A. LeCozannet, G. Levermann, A. Lipscomb, W. H. Marzeion, B. Pattyn, F. Payne, A. J. Pfeffer, W. T. Price, S. F. Seroussi, H. Sun, S. Veatch, W. White, K. |
author_facet |
van de Wal, R. S. W. Nicholls, R. J. Behar, D. McInnes, K. Stammer, D. Lowe, J. A. Church, J. A. DeConto, R. Fettweis, Xavier Goelzer, H. Haasnoot, M. Haigh, I. D. Hinkel, J. Horton, B. P. James, T. S. Jenkins, A. LeCozannet, G. Levermann, A. Lipscomb, W. H. Marzeion, B. Pattyn, F. Payne, A. J. Pfeffer, W. T. Price, S. F. Seroussi, H. Sun, S. Veatch, W. White, K. |
author_sort |
van de Wal, R. S. W. |
title |
A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners |
title_short |
A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners |
title_full |
A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners |
title_fullStr |
A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners |
title_full_unstemmed |
A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners |
title_sort |
high‐end estimate of sea level rise for practitioners |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/296327 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/296327/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202022%20-%20Wal%20-%20A%20High%e2%80%90End%20Estimate%20of%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20for%20Practitioners.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002751 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Ice Shelf |
op_source |
Earth's Future, 10 (11) (2022-11) |
op_relation |
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2022EF002751 urn:issn:2328-4277 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/296327 info:hdl:2268/296327 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/296327/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202022%20-%20Wal%20-%20A%20High%e2%80%90End%20Estimate%20of%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20for%20Practitioners.pdf doi:10.1029/2022ef002751 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85143286560 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef002751 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
11 |
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1796935700984102912 |