How much more warming can the Greenland ice sheet withstand?

• Main Author: Delhasse, Alison
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: 2022
• Subjects: Greenland; Ice sheet; Global Warming; Physical; chemical; mathematical & earth Sciences; Earth sciences & physical geography; Physique; chimie; mathématiques & sciences de la terre; Sciences de la terre & géographie physique; Groenland; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/294264

Greenland Ice sheet (GrIS) is considered as one of the main contributor to sea level rise (SLR) for the end of the 21 st century. What if it is already to late to reverse the ice loss of GrIS ? The mass balance (MB) resulting from the coupling between the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR, ULiège) and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM, PIK) over Greenland with CESM2 ssp585 as large scale forcing indicates that even if we stop the CESM2 warming in 2100 and continue with a climate of + 7 °C until 2200 compared to the reference period (1961-1990), the GrIS is still losing ice masse up to 60 cm of SLR contribution in 2200. Starting from this coupling experiment, we launch several coupled simulations by stabilizing the warming at different threshold (+ 1, 2, 3, … °C) compared to our reference period throughout the 21st century. Another experiment launched is to reverse the CESM2-imposed climate starting in 2100 to 2000. The aim is first to highlight a kind of tipping point of the GrIS to determine whether the stabilization of the climate at a certain warming would result in a new equilibrium state of the GrIS or if the total MB will continue to decrease. The reverse experiment highlight that if we go back to a climate as warm as currently, GrIS could gain ice mass again.