Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves
peer reviewed Abstract. Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios...
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Copernicus GmbH
2022
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/293168 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/293168/1/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/293168 2024-04-21T07:51:49+00:00 Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Hofer, Stefan Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas C. Gilbert, Ella Le Toumelin, Louis Vignon, Étienne Gallée, Hubert Fettweis, Xavier 2022-07-07 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/293168 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/293168/1/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 en eng Copernicus GmbH info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003826 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2655/2022/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/293168 info:hdl:2268/293168 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/293168/1/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85134061947 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 16 (7), 2655-2669 (2022-07-07) Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2022 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed Abstract. Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st-century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models or whether local feedback mechanisms of the surface energy budget could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) to study the physical mechanisms that would control future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of supercooled liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snowmelt–albedo feedback. As liquid-containing clouds are projected to increase the melt spread associated with a given warming rate, they could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 16 7 2655 2669 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Hofer, Stefan Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas C. Gilbert, Ella Le Toumelin, Louis Vignon, Étienne Gallée, Hubert Fettweis, Xavier Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
topic_facet |
Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Abstract. Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st-century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models or whether local feedback mechanisms of the surface energy budget could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) to study the physical mechanisms that would control future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of supercooled liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snowmelt–albedo feedback. As liquid-containing clouds are projected to increase the melt spread associated with a given warming rate, they could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Hofer, Stefan Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas C. Gilbert, Ella Le Toumelin, Louis Vignon, Étienne Gallée, Hubert Fettweis, Xavier |
author_facet |
Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Hofer, Stefan Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas C. Gilbert, Ella Le Toumelin, Louis Vignon, Étienne Gallée, Hubert Fettweis, Xavier |
author_sort |
Kittel, Christoph |
title |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_short |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_full |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_fullStr |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_full_unstemmed |
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves |
title_sort |
clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the antarctic ice shelves |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/293168 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/293168/1/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 16 (7), 2655-2669 (2022-07-07) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101003826 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/2655/2022/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/293168 info:hdl:2268/293168 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/293168/1/tc-16-2655-2022.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85134061947 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2655 |
op_container_end_page |
2669 |
_version_ |
1796935111425392640 |