Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach
peer reviewed Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensembl...
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/258398 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/258398/1/2020GL092060.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/258398 2024-04-21T07:52:38+00:00 Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach Verjans, Vincent Leeson, A.A McMillan, M. Stevens, C.M. van Wessem, J.M. van de Berg, W.J. Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Fettweis, Xavier Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. 2021 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/258398 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/258398/1/2020GL092060.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 en eng Wiley urn:issn:0094-8276 urn:issn:1944-8007 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/258398 info:hdl:2268/258398 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/258398/1/2020GL092060.pdf doi:10.1029/2020GL092060 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85104349288 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Geophysical Research Letters (2021) Antarctic firn Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2021 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 2024-03-27T14:55:22Z peer reviewed Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992‐2017. Using statistical emulation of firn‐densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2–1.0 cm yr‐1 (15–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modelled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step towards more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Geophysical Research Letters 48 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic firn Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic firn Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Verjans, Vincent Leeson, A.A McMillan, M. Stevens, C.M. van Wessem, J.M. van de Berg, W.J. Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Fettweis, Xavier Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
topic_facet |
Antarctic firn Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea‐level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992‐2017. Using statistical emulation of firn‐densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2–1.0 cm yr‐1 (15–300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modelled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step towards more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Verjans, Vincent Leeson, A.A McMillan, M. Stevens, C.M. van Wessem, J.M. van de Berg, W.J. Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Fettweis, Xavier Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. |
author_facet |
Verjans, Vincent Leeson, A.A McMillan, M. Stevens, C.M. van Wessem, J.M. van de Berg, W.J. Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Fettweis, Xavier Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. |
author_sort |
Verjans, Vincent |
title |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_short |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_full |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
title_sort |
uncertainty in east antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/258398 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/258398/1/2020GL092060.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters (2021) |
op_relation |
urn:issn:0094-8276 urn:issn:1944-8007 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/258398 info:hdl:2268/258398 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/258398/1/2020GL092060.pdf doi:10.1029/2020GL092060 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85104349288 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
7 |
_version_ |
1796935837264379904 |