Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
peer reviewed We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean se...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Language: | English |
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Copernicus
2021
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257739 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257739/1/tc-15-571-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/257739 2024-04-21T07:47:29+00:00 Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Donat-Magnin, Marion Jourdain, Nicolas C Kittel, Christoph Agosta, Cécile Amory, Charles Gallée, Hubert Krinner, Gerhard Chekki, Mondher 2021 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257739 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257739/1/tc-15-571-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869304 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/571/2021/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257739 info:hdl:2268/257739 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257739/1/tc-15-571-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85100710117 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 15, 571-593 (2021) SMB melt Amundsen Antarctic surface mass balance Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2021 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 15 2 571 593 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
SMB melt Amundsen Antarctic surface mass balance Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
SMB melt Amundsen Antarctic surface mass balance Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Donat-Magnin, Marion Jourdain, Nicolas C Kittel, Christoph Agosta, Cécile Amory, Charles Gallée, Hubert Krinner, Gerhard Chekki, Mondher Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
topic_facet |
SMB melt Amundsen Antarctic surface mass balance Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Donat-Magnin, Marion Jourdain, Nicolas C Kittel, Christoph Agosta, Cécile Amory, Charles Gallée, Hubert Krinner, Gerhard Chekki, Mondher |
author_facet |
Donat-Magnin, Marion Jourdain, Nicolas C Kittel, Christoph Agosta, Cécile Amory, Charles Gallée, Hubert Krinner, Gerhard Chekki, Mondher |
author_sort |
Donat-Magnin, Marion |
title |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_short |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_full |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_fullStr |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
title_sort |
future surface mass balance and surface melt in the amundsen sector of the west antarctic ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257739 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257739/1/tc-15-571-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 15, 571-593 (2021) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869304 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/571/2021/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257739 info:hdl:2268/257739 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257739/1/tc-15-571-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85100710117 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-571-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
571 |
op_container_end_page |
593 |
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1796946564981194752 |