Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet
peer reviewed The future surface mass balance (SMB) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to the sea level rise. Most of recent Antarctic SMB projections were based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, new C...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257738 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257738/1/tc-15-1215-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/257738 2024-04-21T07:47:29+00:00 Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas C Hofer, Stefan Delhasse, Alison Doutreloup, Sébastien Huot, Pierre-Vincent Lang, Charlotte Fichefet, Thierry Fettweis, Xavier Sphères - SPHERES 2021 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257738 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257738/1/tc-15-1215-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869304 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1215/2021/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257738 info:hdl:2268/257738 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257738/1/tc-15-1215-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85102289222 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 15 (3), 1215-1236 (2021) SMB Antarctic future Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2021 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed The future surface mass balance (SMB) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to the sea level rise. Most of recent Antarctic SMB projections were based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, new CMIP6 results have revealed a +1.3 ∘C higher mean Antarctic near-surface temperature than in CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century, enabling estimations of future SMB in warmer climates. Here, we investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings with an ensemble of four simulations performed with the polar regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) forced by two CMIP5 and two CMIP6 models over 1981–2100. Statistical extrapolation enables us to expand our results to the whole CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Our results highlight a contrasting effect on the future grounded ice sheet and the ice shelves. The SMB over grounded ice is projected to increase as a response to stronger snowfall, only partly offset by enhanced meltwater run-off. This leads to a cumulated sea-level-rise mitigation (i.e. an increase in surface mass) of the grounded Antarctic surface by 5.1 ± 1.9 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) in CMIP5-RCP8.5 (Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and 6.3 ± 2.0 cm SLE in CMIP6-ssp585 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585). Additionally, the CMIP6 low-emission ssp126 and intermediate-emission ssp245 scenarios project a stabilized surface mass gain, resulting in a lower mitigation to sea level rise than in ssp585. Over the ice shelves, the strong run-off increase associated with higher temperature is projected to decrease the SMB (more strongly in CMIP6-ssp585 compared to CMIP5-RCP8.5). Ice shelves are however predicted to have a close-to-present-equilibrium stable SMB under CMIP6 ssp126 and ssp245 scenarios. Future uncertainties are mainly due to the sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the timing of the projected warming. While ice shelves should remain at a close-to-equilibrium stable SMB under the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 15 3 1215 1236 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
SMB Antarctic future Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
SMB Antarctic future Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas C Hofer, Stefan Delhasse, Alison Doutreloup, Sébastien Huot, Pierre-Vincent Lang, Charlotte Fichefet, Thierry Fettweis, Xavier Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet |
topic_facet |
SMB Antarctic future Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed The future surface mass balance (SMB) will influence the ice dynamics and the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to the sea level rise. Most of recent Antarctic SMB projections were based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, new CMIP6 results have revealed a +1.3 ∘C higher mean Antarctic near-surface temperature than in CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century, enabling estimations of future SMB in warmer climates. Here, we investigate the AIS sensitivity to different warmings with an ensemble of four simulations performed with the polar regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) forced by two CMIP5 and two CMIP6 models over 1981–2100. Statistical extrapolation enables us to expand our results to the whole CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Our results highlight a contrasting effect on the future grounded ice sheet and the ice shelves. The SMB over grounded ice is projected to increase as a response to stronger snowfall, only partly offset by enhanced meltwater run-off. This leads to a cumulated sea-level-rise mitigation (i.e. an increase in surface mass) of the grounded Antarctic surface by 5.1 ± 1.9 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) in CMIP5-RCP8.5 (Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and 6.3 ± 2.0 cm SLE in CMIP6-ssp585 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585). Additionally, the CMIP6 low-emission ssp126 and intermediate-emission ssp245 scenarios project a stabilized surface mass gain, resulting in a lower mitigation to sea level rise than in ssp585. Over the ice shelves, the strong run-off increase associated with higher temperature is projected to decrease the SMB (more strongly in CMIP6-ssp585 compared to CMIP5-RCP8.5). Ice shelves are however predicted to have a close-to-present-equilibrium stable SMB under CMIP6 ssp126 and ssp245 scenarios. Future uncertainties are mainly due to the sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the timing of the projected warming. While ice shelves should remain at a close-to-equilibrium stable SMB under the ... |
author2 |
Sphères - SPHERES |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas C Hofer, Stefan Delhasse, Alison Doutreloup, Sébastien Huot, Pierre-Vincent Lang, Charlotte Fichefet, Thierry Fettweis, Xavier |
author_facet |
Kittel, Christoph Amory, Charles Agosta, Cécile Jourdain, Nicolas C Hofer, Stefan Delhasse, Alison Doutreloup, Sébastien Huot, Pierre-Vincent Lang, Charlotte Fichefet, Thierry Fettweis, Xavier |
author_sort |
Kittel, Christoph |
title |
Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet |
title_short |
Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet |
title_full |
Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet |
title_sort |
diverging future surface mass balance between the antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257738 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257738/1/tc-15-1215-2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 15 (3), 1215-1236 (2021) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869304 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1215/2021/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/257738 info:hdl:2268/257738 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/257738/1/tc-15-1215-2021.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85102289222 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1215-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1215 |
op_container_end_page |
1236 |
_version_ |
1796946562731999232 |