Northeast sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet to undergo the greatest inland expansion of supraglacial lakes during the 21st century

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Ignéczi, A., Sole, A., Livingstone, S., Leeson, A., Fettweis, Xavier, Selmes, N., Gourmelen, N., Briggs, K.
• Other Authors: Sphères - SPHERES
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2016
• Subjects: Physical; chemical; mathematical & earth Sciences; Earth sciences & physical geography; Physique; chimie; mathématiques & sciences de la terre; Sciences de la terre & géographie physique; Greenland; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/254772; https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/254772/1/2016GL070338.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070338

peer reviewed The formation and rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes (SGL) influences the mass balance and dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Although SGLs are expected to spread inland during the 21st century due to atmospheric warming, less is known about their future spatial distribution and volume. We use GrIS surface elevation model and regional climate model outputs to show that at the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) approximately 9.8 ± 3.9 km3 (+113% compared to 1980‐2009) and 12.6 ± 5 km3 (+174%) of meltwater could be stored in SGLs under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), respectively. The largest increase is expected in the northeastern sector of the GrIS (191% in RCP 4.5 and 320% in RCP 8.5), whereas in west Greenland, where the most SGLs are currently observed, the future increase will be relatively moderate (55% in RCP 4.5 and 68% in RCP 8.5).