Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts?
peer reviewed Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Prog...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/254771 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/254771/1/%5b15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5d%20Twentieth-Century%20Global-Mean%20Sea%20Level%20Rise_%20Is%20the%20Whole%20Greater%20than%20the%20Sum%20of%20the%20Parts_.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1 |
id |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/254771 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/254771 2024-04-21T07:51:08+00:00 Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? Gregory, J. White, N. Church, J. Bierkens, M. Box, J. van den Broeke, M. Cogley, J. Fettweis, Xavier Hanna, E. Huybrechts, P. Konikow, L. Leclercq, P. Marzeion, B. Oerlemans, J. Tamisiea, M. Wada, Y. Wake, L. van de Wal, R. Sphères - SPHERES 2013-07-01 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/254771 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/254771/1/%5b15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5d%20Twentieth-Century%20Global-Mean%20Sea%20Level%20Rise_%20Is%20the%20Whole%20Greater%20than%20the%20Sum%20of%20the%20Parts_.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1 en eng American Meteorological Society https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/13/jcli-d-12-00319.1.xml urn:issn:0894-8755 urn:issn:1520-0442 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/254771 info:hdl:2268/254771 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/254771/1/%5b15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5d%20Twentieth-Century%20Global-Mean%20Sea%20Level%20Rise_%20Is%20the%20Whole%20Greater%20than%20the%20Sum%20of%20the%20Parts_.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84876193464 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Journal of Climate, 4476–4499 (2013-07-01) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2013 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1 2024-03-27T14:55:45Z peer reviewed Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Journal of Climate 26 13 4476 4499 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Gregory, J. White, N. Church, J. Bierkens, M. Box, J. van den Broeke, M. Cogley, J. Fettweis, Xavier Hanna, E. Huybrechts, P. Konikow, L. Leclercq, P. Marzeion, B. Oerlemans, J. Tamisiea, M. Wada, Y. Wake, L. van de Wal, R. Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century. |
author2 |
Sphères - SPHERES |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gregory, J. White, N. Church, J. Bierkens, M. Box, J. van den Broeke, M. Cogley, J. Fettweis, Xavier Hanna, E. Huybrechts, P. Konikow, L. Leclercq, P. Marzeion, B. Oerlemans, J. Tamisiea, M. Wada, Y. Wake, L. van de Wal, R. |
author_facet |
Gregory, J. White, N. Church, J. Bierkens, M. Box, J. van den Broeke, M. Cogley, J. Fettweis, Xavier Hanna, E. Huybrechts, P. Konikow, L. Leclercq, P. Marzeion, B. Oerlemans, J. Tamisiea, M. Wada, Y. Wake, L. van de Wal, R. |
author_sort |
Gregory, J. |
title |
Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? |
title_short |
Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? |
title_full |
Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? |
title_fullStr |
Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? |
title_sort |
twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/254771 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/254771/1/%5b15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5d%20Twentieth-Century%20Global-Mean%20Sea%20Level%20Rise_%20Is%20the%20Whole%20Greater%20than%20the%20Sum%20of%20the%20Parts_.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Journal of Climate, 4476–4499 (2013-07-01) |
op_relation |
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/13/jcli-d-12-00319.1.xml urn:issn:0894-8755 urn:issn:1520-0442 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/254771 info:hdl:2268/254771 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/254771/1/%5b15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5d%20Twentieth-Century%20Global-Mean%20Sea%20Level%20Rise_%20Is%20the%20Whole%20Greater%20than%20the%20Sum%20of%20the%20Parts_.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84876193464 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
4476 |
op_container_end_page |
4499 |
_version_ |
1796934596489641984 |