Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution
peer reviewed Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key phy...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Copernicus Group
2020
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/246458 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/246458/1/tc-14-985-2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/246458 2024-04-21T08:02:27+00:00 Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution Slater, Donald Felikson, Denis Straneo, Fiamma Goelzer, Heiko Little, Christopher Morlighem, Mathieu Fettweis, Xavier Nowicki, Sophie Sphères - SPHERES 2020-03-16 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/246458 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/246458/1/tc-14-985-2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020 en eng Copernicus Group https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/985/2020/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/246458 info:hdl:2268/246458 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/246458/1/tc-14-985-2020.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-14-985-2020 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85082039794 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008 (2020-03-16) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2020 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the “retreat” and “submarine melt” implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord–shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea ... Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 14 3 985 1008 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Slater, Donald Felikson, Denis Straneo, Fiamma Goelzer, Heiko Little, Christopher Morlighem, Mathieu Fettweis, Xavier Nowicki, Sophie Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the “retreat” and “submarine melt” implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord–shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea ... |
author2 |
Sphères - SPHERES |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Slater, Donald Felikson, Denis Straneo, Fiamma Goelzer, Heiko Little, Christopher Morlighem, Mathieu Fettweis, Xavier Nowicki, Sophie |
author_facet |
Slater, Donald Felikson, Denis Straneo, Fiamma Goelzer, Heiko Little, Christopher Morlighem, Mathieu Fettweis, Xavier Nowicki, Sophie |
author_sort |
Slater, Donald |
title |
Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution |
title_short |
Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution |
title_full |
Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution |
title_fullStr |
Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution |
title_full_unstemmed |
Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution |
title_sort |
twenty-first century ocean forcing of the greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution |
publisher |
Copernicus Group |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/246458 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/246458/1/tc-14-985-2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020 |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 14, 985–1008 (2020-03-16) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/985/2020/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/246458 info:hdl:2268/246458 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/246458/1/tc-14-985-2020.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-14-985-2020 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85082039794 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-985-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
985 |
op_container_end_page |
1008 |
_version_ |
1796942644993064960 |