Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration
peer reviewed 1. Changes in migration timing, resulting from the alteration in river continuity or the effect of climate change, can have major consequences on the population dynamics of diadromous fish. Forecasting the phenology of fish migration is thus critically important to implement management...
Published in: | Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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John Wiley & Sons
2020
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/245841 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/245841/1/Aquatic_conservation_Teichertetal.2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3382 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/245841 2024-04-21T07:57:18+00:00 Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration Nils, Teichert Benitez, Jean-Philippe Dierckx, Arnaud Tétard, Stéphane De Oliveira, Eric Trancart, Thomas Feunteun, Eric Ovidio, Michaël FOCUS - Freshwater and OCeanic science Unit of reSearch - ULiège AFFISH-RC - Applied and Fundamental FISH Research Center - ULiège 2020-08 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/245841 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/245841/1/Aquatic_conservation_Teichertetal.2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3382 en eng John Wiley & Sons urn:issn:1052-7613 urn:issn:1099-0755 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/245841 info:hdl:2268/245841 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/245841/1/Aquatic_conservation_Teichertetal.2020.pdf doi:10.1002/aqc.3382 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85086394925 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Aquatic Conservation, 30, 1552-1565 (2020-08) climate change disturbance engineering fish hydro ecology hydropower migration river Life sciences Environmental sciences & ecology Sciences du vivant Sciences de l’environnement & écologie journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2020 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3382 2024-03-27T14:58:57Z peer reviewed 1. Changes in migration timing, resulting from the alteration in river continuity or the effect of climate change, can have major consequences on the population dynamics of diadromous fish. Forecasting the phenology of fish migration is thus critically important to implement management actions aimed at protecting fish during their migration. 2. In this study, an 11-year monitoring survey of Atlantic salmon smolts (Salmo salar) from the Ourthe River, Belgium, was analysed within a European Special Area of Conservation to improve the understanding of environment-induced spring migration. A logistic model was fitted to forecast smolt migration and to calculate phenological indicators for management, i.e. the onset, end, and duration of migration, while accounting for the influence of photoperiod, water temperature, and hydrological conditions. 3. The results indicated that the photo-thermal units accumulated by smolts above a 7 C temperature threshold was a relevant proxy to reflect the synergistic effect between temperature and photoperiod on smolt migration. After integrating the effect of river flow pulses, the model accurately explained the inter-annual changes in migration timing (R2 = 0.95). The model predictions provide decisive management information to identify sensitive periods during which mitigation measures (e.g. hydropower turbine shutdown, river discharge management) should be conducted to promote smolt survival. 4. The model was used to predict phenological characteristics under future scenarios of climate change. The results suggest a joint effect of hydrological alterations and water warming. Temperature increases of 1–4 C were associated with earlier initiation of migration, 6–51 days earlier, and spring flood events greatly influenced the duration of the migration period. Accordingly, the combined effects of human-induced modifications of the hydrological regimes and increasing temperatures could result in a mismatch between the smolt and favourable survival conditions in the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Salmo salar University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 30 8 1552 1565 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change disturbance engineering fish hydro ecology hydropower migration river Life sciences Environmental sciences & ecology Sciences du vivant Sciences de l’environnement & écologie |
spellingShingle |
climate change disturbance engineering fish hydro ecology hydropower migration river Life sciences Environmental sciences & ecology Sciences du vivant Sciences de l’environnement & écologie Nils, Teichert Benitez, Jean-Philippe Dierckx, Arnaud Tétard, Stéphane De Oliveira, Eric Trancart, Thomas Feunteun, Eric Ovidio, Michaël Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration |
topic_facet |
climate change disturbance engineering fish hydro ecology hydropower migration river Life sciences Environmental sciences & ecology Sciences du vivant Sciences de l’environnement & écologie |
description |
peer reviewed 1. Changes in migration timing, resulting from the alteration in river continuity or the effect of climate change, can have major consequences on the population dynamics of diadromous fish. Forecasting the phenology of fish migration is thus critically important to implement management actions aimed at protecting fish during their migration. 2. In this study, an 11-year monitoring survey of Atlantic salmon smolts (Salmo salar) from the Ourthe River, Belgium, was analysed within a European Special Area of Conservation to improve the understanding of environment-induced spring migration. A logistic model was fitted to forecast smolt migration and to calculate phenological indicators for management, i.e. the onset, end, and duration of migration, while accounting for the influence of photoperiod, water temperature, and hydrological conditions. 3. The results indicated that the photo-thermal units accumulated by smolts above a 7 C temperature threshold was a relevant proxy to reflect the synergistic effect between temperature and photoperiod on smolt migration. After integrating the effect of river flow pulses, the model accurately explained the inter-annual changes in migration timing (R2 = 0.95). The model predictions provide decisive management information to identify sensitive periods during which mitigation measures (e.g. hydropower turbine shutdown, river discharge management) should be conducted to promote smolt survival. 4. The model was used to predict phenological characteristics under future scenarios of climate change. The results suggest a joint effect of hydrological alterations and water warming. Temperature increases of 1–4 C were associated with earlier initiation of migration, 6–51 days earlier, and spring flood events greatly influenced the duration of the migration period. Accordingly, the combined effects of human-induced modifications of the hydrological regimes and increasing temperatures could result in a mismatch between the smolt and favourable survival conditions in the ... |
author2 |
FOCUS - Freshwater and OCeanic science Unit of reSearch - ULiège AFFISH-RC - Applied and Fundamental FISH Research Center - ULiège |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nils, Teichert Benitez, Jean-Philippe Dierckx, Arnaud Tétard, Stéphane De Oliveira, Eric Trancart, Thomas Feunteun, Eric Ovidio, Michaël |
author_facet |
Nils, Teichert Benitez, Jean-Philippe Dierckx, Arnaud Tétard, Stéphane De Oliveira, Eric Trancart, Thomas Feunteun, Eric Ovidio, Michaël |
author_sort |
Nils, Teichert |
title |
Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration |
title_short |
Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration |
title_full |
Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration |
title_fullStr |
Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration |
title_sort |
development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of atlantic salmon smolt spring migration |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/245841 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/245841/1/Aquatic_conservation_Teichertetal.2020.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3382 |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
op_source |
Aquatic Conservation, 30, 1552-1565 (2020-08) |
op_relation |
urn:issn:1052-7613 urn:issn:1099-0755 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/245841 info:hdl:2268/245841 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/245841/1/Aquatic_conservation_Teichertetal.2020.pdf doi:10.1002/aqc.3382 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85086394925 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3382 |
container_title |
Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1552 |
op_container_end_page |
1565 |
_version_ |
1796938999202316288 |