Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting

peer reviewed The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its cri...

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Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: Slater, D., Straneo, F., Felikson, D., Little, C., Goelzer, H., Fettweis, Xavier, Holte, J.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Group 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/239742
https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/239742/1/tc-13-2489-2019.pdf
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019
id ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/239742
record_format openpolar
spelling ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/239742 2024-10-20T14:08:51+00:00 Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting Slater, D. Straneo, F. Felikson, D. Little, C. Goelzer, H. Fettweis, Xavier Holte, J. 2019-09-26 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/239742 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/239742/1/tc-13-2489-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 en eng Copernicus Group https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/2489/2019/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/239742 info:hdl:2268/239742 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere (13), 2489–2509 (2019-09-26) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2019 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019 2024-09-27T07:02:08Z peer reviewed The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic The Cryosphere Tidewater University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Greenland The Cryosphere 13 9 2489 2509
institution Open Polar
collection University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography)
op_collection_id ftorbi
language English
topic Physical
chemical
mathematical & earth Sciences
Earth sciences & physical geography
Physique
chimie
mathématiques & sciences de la terre
Sciences de la terre & géographie physique
spellingShingle Physical
chemical
mathematical & earth Sciences
Earth sciences & physical geography
Physique
chimie
mathématiques & sciences de la terre
Sciences de la terre & géographie physique
Slater, D.
Straneo, F.
Felikson, D.
Little, C.
Goelzer, H.
Fettweis, Xavier
Holte, J.
Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting
topic_facet Physical
chemical
mathematical & earth Sciences
Earth sciences & physical geography
Physique
chimie
mathématiques & sciences de la terre
Sciences de la terre & géographie physique
description peer reviewed The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Slater, D.
Straneo, F.
Felikson, D.
Little, C.
Goelzer, H.
Fettweis, Xavier
Holte, J.
author_facet Slater, D.
Straneo, F.
Felikson, D.
Little, C.
Goelzer, H.
Fettweis, Xavier
Holte, J.
author_sort Slater, D.
title Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting
title_short Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting
title_full Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting
title_fullStr Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting
title_full_unstemmed Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting
title_sort estimating greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting
publisher Copernicus Group
publishDate 2019
url https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/239742
https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/239742/1/tc-13-2489-2019.pdf
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019
geographic Greenland
geographic_facet Greenland
genre glacier
Greenland
Ice Sheet
North Atlantic
The Cryosphere
Tidewater
genre_facet glacier
Greenland
Ice Sheet
North Atlantic
The Cryosphere
Tidewater
op_source The Cryosphere (13), 2489–2509 (2019-09-26)
op_relation https://www.the-cryosphere.net/13/2489/2019/
urn:issn:1994-0416
urn:issn:1994-0424
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/239742
info:hdl:2268/239742
op_rights open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2489-2019
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 13
container_issue 9
container_start_page 2489
op_container_end_page 2509
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