Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change
peer reviewed Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to become the major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of the AIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remain challenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in i...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2019
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/234760 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/234760/1/tc-13-1349-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/234760 2024-04-21T07:52:29+00:00 Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change Quantification de l'incertitude sur la réponse multiséculaire de la calotte polaire antarctique au changement climatique Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sun, Sainan Pattyn, Frank 2019-04-24 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/234760 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/234760/1/tc-13-1349-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 en eng Copernicus Publications https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/234760 info:hdl:2268/234760 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/234760/1/tc-13-1349-2019.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85065250609 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 13, 1349-1380 (2019-04-24) Uncertainty quantification Ice-sheet modelling sea-level rise projections Quantification d'incertitudes Modélisation glaciologique projections du niveau marin Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2019 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to become the major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of the AIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remain challenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-sheet dynamics, including instability mechanisms that can destabilise marine basins with retrograde slopes. Moreover, uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to a hybrid ice-sheet model to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty in atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation, on the continental response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change over the next millennium. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat, and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all investigated sources of uncertainty, except bedrock relaxation time, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as atmospheric and oceanic temperatures rise, with a contribution to the uncertainty in sea-level rise projections that goes from 5 % to 25 % in RCP 2.6 to more than 90 % in RCP 8.5. We show that the significance of the AIS contribution to sea level is controlled by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) in marine basins, with the biggest contribution stemming from the more vulnerable West Antarctic ice sheet. We find that, irrespective of parametric uncertainty, the strongly mitigated RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, that in both the RCP ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 13 4 1349 1380 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Uncertainty quantification Ice-sheet modelling sea-level rise projections Quantification d'incertitudes Modélisation glaciologique projections du niveau marin Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Uncertainty quantification Ice-sheet modelling sea-level rise projections Quantification d'incertitudes Modélisation glaciologique projections du niveau marin Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sun, Sainan Pattyn, Frank Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
topic_facet |
Uncertainty quantification Ice-sheet modelling sea-level rise projections Quantification d'incertitudes Modélisation glaciologique projections du niveau marin Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to become the major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of the AIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remain challenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-sheet dynamics, including instability mechanisms that can destabilise marine basins with retrograde slopes. Moreover, uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to a hybrid ice-sheet model to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty in atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation, on the continental response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change over the next millennium. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat, and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all investigated sources of uncertainty, except bedrock relaxation time, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as atmospheric and oceanic temperatures rise, with a contribution to the uncertainty in sea-level rise projections that goes from 5 % to 25 % in RCP 2.6 to more than 90 % in RCP 8.5. We show that the significance of the AIS contribution to sea level is controlled by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) in marine basins, with the biggest contribution stemming from the more vulnerable West Antarctic ice sheet. We find that, irrespective of parametric uncertainty, the strongly mitigated RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, that in both the RCP ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sun, Sainan Pattyn, Frank |
author_facet |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sun, Sainan Pattyn, Frank |
author_sort |
Bulthuis, Kevin |
title |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_short |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_full |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_sort |
uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/234760 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/234760/1/tc-13-1349-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 13, 1349-1380 (2019-04-24) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/234760 info:hdl:2268/234760 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/234760/1/tc-13-1349-2019.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85065250609 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1349 |
op_container_end_page |
1380 |
_version_ |
1796935719007027200 |