Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change
Uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty (atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf meltin...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Conference Object |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/233442 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/233442/1/Abstract.pdf |
id |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/233442 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/233442 2024-04-21T07:46:35+00:00 Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change Quantification de l'incertitude sur la réponse multiséculaire de la calotte polaire antarctique au changement climatique Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sainan, Sun Pattyn, Frank 2019-03-11 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/233442 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/233442/1/Abstract.pdf en eng https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/233442 info:hdl:2268/233442 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/233442/1/Abstract.pdf open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess SIAM Conference on Mathematical & Computational Issues in the Geosciences (GS19), Houston, United States [US], March 11-14, 2019 Uncertainty quantification Sensitivity analysis Antarctica Quantification d'incertitudes Analyse de sensibilité Antarctique Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre conference paper not in proceedings http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cp info:eu-repo/semantics/conferencePaper 2019 ftorbi 2024-03-27T14:49:25Z Uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty (atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation) on the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analyses to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all sources of uncertainty, except perhaps the bedrock relaxation times, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as the scenario gets warmer. We show that the significance of the contribution to sea-level rise is controlled by instabilities in marine basins, especially in the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). We find that, irrespectively of parametric uncertainty, the RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the WAIS, that in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios the occurrence of instabilities in marine basins is more sensitive to parametric uncertainty and that, almost irrespectively of parametric uncertainty, RCP 8.5 triggers the collapse of the WAIS. Conference Object Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Uncertainty quantification Sensitivity analysis Antarctica Quantification d'incertitudes Analyse de sensibilité Antarctique Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre |
spellingShingle |
Uncertainty quantification Sensitivity analysis Antarctica Quantification d'incertitudes Analyse de sensibilité Antarctique Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sainan, Sun Pattyn, Frank Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
topic_facet |
Uncertainty quantification Sensitivity analysis Antarctica Quantification d'incertitudes Analyse de sensibilité Antarctique Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre |
description |
Uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty (atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation) on the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analyses to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all sources of uncertainty, except perhaps the bedrock relaxation times, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as the scenario gets warmer. We show that the significance of the contribution to sea-level rise is controlled by instabilities in marine basins, especially in the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). We find that, irrespectively of parametric uncertainty, the RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the WAIS, that in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios the occurrence of instabilities in marine basins is more sensitive to parametric uncertainty and that, almost irrespectively of parametric uncertainty, RCP 8.5 triggers the collapse of the WAIS. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sainan, Sun Pattyn, Frank |
author_facet |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Sainan, Sun Pattyn, Frank |
author_sort |
Bulthuis, Kevin |
title |
Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_short |
Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_full |
Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty Quantification of the Multi-centennial Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate change |
title_sort |
uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the antarctic ice sheet to climate change |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/233442 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/233442/1/Abstract.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
op_source |
SIAM Conference on Mathematical & Computational Issues in the Geosciences (GS19), Houston, United States [US], March 11-14, 2019 |
op_relation |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/233442 info:hdl:2268/233442 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/233442/1/Abstract.pdf |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1796944031319588864 |