Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds
peer reviewed Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes....
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/224715 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13522 |
id |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/224715 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/224715 2024-10-13T14:08:49+00:00 Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds Lagerholm, V. K. Sandoval-Castellanos, E. Vaniscotte, A. Potapova, O. R. Tomek, T. Bochenski, Z. M. Shepherd, P. Barton, N. Van Dyck, M.-C. Miller, Rebecca Höglund, J. Yoccoz, N. G. Dalén, L. Stewart, J. R. 2017 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/224715 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13522 en eng Wiley urn:issn:1354-1013 urn:issn:1365-2486 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/224715 info:hdl:2268/224715 doi:10.1111/gcb.13522 info:pmid:27762483 restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Global Change Biology, 23 (4), 1425-1435 (2017) Lagopus Pleistocene DNA Last Glacial Maximum Aves Lagopus lagopus Lagopus mutus Mammalia Salix Europe Adaptation Physiological Animals Birds Climate Climate Change Cold Temperature Ancient Ecosystem Life sciences Environmental sciences & ecology Arts & humanities History Sciences du vivant Sciences de l’environnement & écologie Arts & sciences humaines Histoire journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2017 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13522 2024-09-27T07:01:56Z peer reviewed Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd FP6, Sixth Framework Programme Article in Journal/Newspaper Lagopus muta Lagopus mutus rock ptarmigan University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Global Change Biology 23 4 1425 1435 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Lagopus Pleistocene DNA Last Glacial Maximum Aves Lagopus lagopus Lagopus mutus Mammalia Salix Europe Adaptation Physiological Animals Birds Climate Climate Change Cold Temperature Ancient Ecosystem Life sciences Environmental sciences & ecology Arts & humanities History Sciences du vivant Sciences de l’environnement & écologie Arts & sciences humaines Histoire |
spellingShingle |
Lagopus Pleistocene DNA Last Glacial Maximum Aves Lagopus lagopus Lagopus mutus Mammalia Salix Europe Adaptation Physiological Animals Birds Climate Climate Change Cold Temperature Ancient Ecosystem Life sciences Environmental sciences & ecology Arts & humanities History Sciences du vivant Sciences de l’environnement & écologie Arts & sciences humaines Histoire Lagerholm, V. K. Sandoval-Castellanos, E. Vaniscotte, A. Potapova, O. R. Tomek, T. Bochenski, Z. M. Shepherd, P. Barton, N. Van Dyck, M.-C. Miller, Rebecca Höglund, J. Yoccoz, N. G. Dalén, L. Stewart, J. R. Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds |
topic_facet |
Lagopus Pleistocene DNA Last Glacial Maximum Aves Lagopus lagopus Lagopus mutus Mammalia Salix Europe Adaptation Physiological Animals Birds Climate Climate Change Cold Temperature Ancient Ecosystem Life sciences Environmental sciences & ecology Arts & humanities History Sciences du vivant Sciences de l’environnement & écologie Arts & sciences humaines Histoire |
description |
peer reviewed Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd FP6, Sixth Framework Programme |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lagerholm, V. K. Sandoval-Castellanos, E. Vaniscotte, A. Potapova, O. R. Tomek, T. Bochenski, Z. M. Shepherd, P. Barton, N. Van Dyck, M.-C. Miller, Rebecca Höglund, J. Yoccoz, N. G. Dalén, L. Stewart, J. R. |
author_facet |
Lagerholm, V. K. Sandoval-Castellanos, E. Vaniscotte, A. Potapova, O. R. Tomek, T. Bochenski, Z. M. Shepherd, P. Barton, N. Van Dyck, M.-C. Miller, Rebecca Höglund, J. Yoccoz, N. G. Dalén, L. Stewart, J. R. |
author_sort |
Lagerholm, V. K. |
title |
Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds |
title_short |
Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds |
title_full |
Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds |
title_fullStr |
Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds |
title_full_unstemmed |
Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds |
title_sort |
range shifts or extinction? ancient dna and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/224715 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13522 |
genre |
Lagopus muta Lagopus mutus rock ptarmigan |
genre_facet |
Lagopus muta Lagopus mutus rock ptarmigan |
op_source |
Global Change Biology, 23 (4), 1425-1435 (2017) |
op_relation |
urn:issn:1354-1013 urn:issn:1365-2486 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/224715 info:hdl:2268/224715 doi:10.1111/gcb.13522 info:pmid:27762483 |
op_rights |
restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13522 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1425 |
op_container_end_page |
1435 |
_version_ |
1812815597514260480 |