Stochastic Modeling of Uncertainties in Fast Essential Antarctic Ice Sheet Models
Quantifying the uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise induced by ice-sheet dynamics is a pivotal problem in assessing climate-change consequences. Sources of uncertainty in ice-sheet models include uncertain climate forcing, basal friction, sub-shelf melting, initialization, and other model f...
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/222840 2024-04-21T07:49:18+00:00 Stochastic Modeling of Uncertainties in Fast Essential Antarctic Ice Sheet Models Modélisation stochastique des incertitudes dans les modèles glaciologiques rapides essentiels de l'Antarctique Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Pattyn, Frank Favier, Lionel 2018-04-16 22 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/222840 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/222840/1/Abstract.pdf en eng https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/222840 info:hdl:2268/222840 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/222840/1/Abstract.pdf open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification 2018, Garden Grove (Los Angeles), United States - California [US-CA], April 16-19, 2018 uncertainty quantification stochastic modeling ice-sheet modeling quantification d'incertitudes modélisation stochastique modélisation glaciologique Engineering computing & technology Ingénierie informatique & technologie conference paper not in proceedings http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cp info:eu-repo/semantics/conferencePaper 2018 ftorbi 2024-03-27T14:48:42Z Quantifying the uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise induced by ice-sheet dynamics is a pivotal problem in assessing climate-change consequences. Sources of uncertainty in ice-sheet models include uncertain climate forcing, basal friction, sub-shelf melting, initialization, and other model features. Accounting for uncertainty in ice-sheet models (ISMs) is challenging: (i) the stochastic modeling of sources of uncertainty can be challenged by data scarcity and imperfect representations of physical processes, and (ii) the computational cost of ISMs can hinder their integration in Earth system models and limit the number of simulations available for uncertainty propagation. In this talk, we address the uncertainty quantification of sea-level rise projections by using the new fast essential ISM f.ETISh that affords computational tractability by limiting its complexity to the essential interactions and feedback mechanisms of ice-sheet flow. After highlighting how simulations require an initialization procedure that precedes their use in predicting climate-change effects, we will discuss the sources of uncertainty in this ISM and the information available for their stochastic modeling. We will show the stochastic modeling of a subset of these sources of uncertainty, followed by a propagation of uncertainty through the ISM and a sensitivity analysis to help identify the dominant sources of uncertainty in sea-level rise projections. Conference Object Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
uncertainty quantification stochastic modeling ice-sheet modeling quantification d'incertitudes modélisation stochastique modélisation glaciologique Engineering computing & technology Ingénierie informatique & technologie |
spellingShingle |
uncertainty quantification stochastic modeling ice-sheet modeling quantification d'incertitudes modélisation stochastique modélisation glaciologique Engineering computing & technology Ingénierie informatique & technologie Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Pattyn, Frank Favier, Lionel Stochastic Modeling of Uncertainties in Fast Essential Antarctic Ice Sheet Models |
topic_facet |
uncertainty quantification stochastic modeling ice-sheet modeling quantification d'incertitudes modélisation stochastique modélisation glaciologique Engineering computing & technology Ingénierie informatique & technologie |
description |
Quantifying the uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise induced by ice-sheet dynamics is a pivotal problem in assessing climate-change consequences. Sources of uncertainty in ice-sheet models include uncertain climate forcing, basal friction, sub-shelf melting, initialization, and other model features. Accounting for uncertainty in ice-sheet models (ISMs) is challenging: (i) the stochastic modeling of sources of uncertainty can be challenged by data scarcity and imperfect representations of physical processes, and (ii) the computational cost of ISMs can hinder their integration in Earth system models and limit the number of simulations available for uncertainty propagation. In this talk, we address the uncertainty quantification of sea-level rise projections by using the new fast essential ISM f.ETISh that affords computational tractability by limiting its complexity to the essential interactions and feedback mechanisms of ice-sheet flow. After highlighting how simulations require an initialization procedure that precedes their use in predicting climate-change effects, we will discuss the sources of uncertainty in this ISM and the information available for their stochastic modeling. We will show the stochastic modeling of a subset of these sources of uncertainty, followed by a propagation of uncertainty through the ISM and a sensitivity analysis to help identify the dominant sources of uncertainty in sea-level rise projections. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Pattyn, Frank Favier, Lionel |
author_facet |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Pattyn, Frank Favier, Lionel |
author_sort |
Bulthuis, Kevin |
title |
Stochastic Modeling of Uncertainties in Fast Essential Antarctic Ice Sheet Models |
title_short |
Stochastic Modeling of Uncertainties in Fast Essential Antarctic Ice Sheet Models |
title_full |
Stochastic Modeling of Uncertainties in Fast Essential Antarctic Ice Sheet Models |
title_fullStr |
Stochastic Modeling of Uncertainties in Fast Essential Antarctic Ice Sheet Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stochastic Modeling of Uncertainties in Fast Essential Antarctic Ice Sheet Models |
title_sort |
stochastic modeling of uncertainties in fast essential antarctic ice sheet models |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/222840 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/222840/1/Abstract.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification 2018, Garden Grove (Los Angeles), United States - California [US-CA], April 16-19, 2018 |
op_relation |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/222840 info:hdl:2268/222840 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/222840/1/Abstract.pdf |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1796931950948122624 |