Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model
peer reviewed Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7–6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20–110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice she...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Group
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/221583 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/221583/1/tc-12-1091-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018 |
id |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/221583 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/221583 2024-04-21T08:03:19+00:00 Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model Leeson, A. Eastoe, E. Fettweis, Xavier 2018-03-26 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/221583 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/221583/1/tc-12-1091-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018 en eng Copernicus Group https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1091/2018/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/221583 info:hdl:2268/221583 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/221583/1/tc-12-1091-2018.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85044928776 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 12, 1091-1102 (2018-03-26) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2018 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7–6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20–110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 12 3 1091 1102 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Leeson, A. Eastoe, E. Fettweis, Xavier Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7–6.12 mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20–110 mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional- and local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland. We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41 % depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Leeson, A. Eastoe, E. Fettweis, Xavier |
author_facet |
Leeson, A. Eastoe, E. Fettweis, Xavier |
author_sort |
Leeson, A. |
title |
Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model |
title_short |
Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model |
title_full |
Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model |
title_fullStr |
Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model |
title_sort |
extreme temperature events on greenland in observations and the mar regional climate model |
publisher |
Copernicus Group |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/221583 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/221583/1/tc-12-1091-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 12, 1091-1102 (2018-03-26) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1091/2018/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/221583 info:hdl:2268/221583 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/221583/1/tc-12-1091-2018.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018 scopus-id:2-s2.0-85044928776 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1091 |
op_container_end_page |
1102 |
_version_ |
1796943225039093760 |