Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model
Uncertainties in sea-level rise projections are mostly due to uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet predictions (IPCC AR5 report, 2013), because key parameters related to the current state of the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g. sub-ice- shelf melting) and future climate forcing are poorly constrained. Here...
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/207549 2024-04-21T07:49:12+00:00 Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model Quantification des incertitudes pour la contribution à la montée du niveau marin de la calotte antarctique à l'aide du modèle numérique f.ETISh Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Pattyn, Frank Favier, Lionel 2017-04 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/207549 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/207549/1/Abstract.pdf en eng https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/207549 info:hdl:2268/207549 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/207549/1/Abstract.pdf open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Vienna, Austria [AT], from 23-04-2017 to 28-04-2017 uncertainty quantification sparse-grid methods ice-sheet simulation quantification d'incertitudes méthodes à grilles creuses simulation glaciaire Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique conference paper not in proceedings http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cp info:eu-repo/semantics/conferencePaper 2017 ftorbi 2024-03-27T14:50:17Z Uncertainties in sea-level rise projections are mostly due to uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet predictions (IPCC AR5 report, 2013), because key parameters related to the current state of the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g. sub-ice- shelf melting) and future climate forcing are poorly constrained. Here, we propose to improve the predictions of Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour using new uncertainty quantification methods. As opposed to ensemble modelling (Bindschadler et al., 2013) which provides a rather limited view on input and output dispersion, new stochastic methods (Le Maître and Knio, 2010) can provide deeper insight into the impact of uncertainties on complex system behaviour. Such stochastic methods usually begin with deducing a probabilistic description of input parameter uncertainties from the available data. Then, the impact of these input parameter uncertainties on output quantities is assessed by estimating the probability distribution of the outputs by means of uncertainty propagation methods such as Monte Carlo methods or stochastic expansion methods. The use of such uncertainty propagation methods in glaciology may be computationally costly because of the high computational complexity of ice-sheet models. This challenge emphasises the importance of developing reliable and computationally efficient ice-sheet models such as the f.ETISh ice-sheet model (Pattyn, 2015), a new fast thermomechanical coupled ice sheet/ice shelf model capable of handling complex and critical processes such as the marine ice-sheet instability mechanism. Here, we apply these methods to investigate the role of uncertainties in sub-ice-shelf melting, calving rates and climate projections in assessing Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise for the next centuries using the f.ETISh model. We detail the methods and show results that provide nominal values and uncertainty bounds for future sea- level rise as a reflection of the impact of the input parameter uncertainties under consideration, as well as a ranking of the input ... Conference Object Antarc* Antarctic Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
uncertainty quantification sparse-grid methods ice-sheet simulation quantification d'incertitudes méthodes à grilles creuses simulation glaciaire Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
uncertainty quantification sparse-grid methods ice-sheet simulation quantification d'incertitudes méthodes à grilles creuses simulation glaciaire Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Pattyn, Frank Favier, Lionel Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model |
topic_facet |
uncertainty quantification sparse-grid methods ice-sheet simulation quantification d'incertitudes méthodes à grilles creuses simulation glaciaire Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
Uncertainties in sea-level rise projections are mostly due to uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet predictions (IPCC AR5 report, 2013), because key parameters related to the current state of the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g. sub-ice- shelf melting) and future climate forcing are poorly constrained. Here, we propose to improve the predictions of Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour using new uncertainty quantification methods. As opposed to ensemble modelling (Bindschadler et al., 2013) which provides a rather limited view on input and output dispersion, new stochastic methods (Le Maître and Knio, 2010) can provide deeper insight into the impact of uncertainties on complex system behaviour. Such stochastic methods usually begin with deducing a probabilistic description of input parameter uncertainties from the available data. Then, the impact of these input parameter uncertainties on output quantities is assessed by estimating the probability distribution of the outputs by means of uncertainty propagation methods such as Monte Carlo methods or stochastic expansion methods. The use of such uncertainty propagation methods in glaciology may be computationally costly because of the high computational complexity of ice-sheet models. This challenge emphasises the importance of developing reliable and computationally efficient ice-sheet models such as the f.ETISh ice-sheet model (Pattyn, 2015), a new fast thermomechanical coupled ice sheet/ice shelf model capable of handling complex and critical processes such as the marine ice-sheet instability mechanism. Here, we apply these methods to investigate the role of uncertainties in sub-ice-shelf melting, calving rates and climate projections in assessing Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise for the next centuries using the f.ETISh model. We detail the methods and show results that provide nominal values and uncertainty bounds for future sea- level rise as a reflection of the impact of the input parameter uncertainties under consideration, as well as a ranking of the input ... |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Pattyn, Frank Favier, Lionel |
author_facet |
Bulthuis, Kevin Arnst, Maarten Pattyn, Frank Favier, Lionel |
author_sort |
Bulthuis, Kevin |
title |
Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model |
title_short |
Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model |
title_full |
Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model |
title_sort |
uncertainty quantification of antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast elementary thermomechanical ice sheet (f.etish) model |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/207549 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/207549/1/Abstract.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctique* Ice Sheet Ice Shelf |
op_source |
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Vienna, Austria [AT], from 23-04-2017 to 28-04-2017 |
op_relation |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/207549 info:hdl:2268/207549 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/207549/1/Abstract.pdf |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1796931393467449344 |