Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970
peer reviewed Sea-level change is an important consequence of anthropogenic climate change, as higher sea levels increase the frequency of sea-level extremes and the impact of coastal flooding and erosion on the coastal environment, infrastructure and coastal communities1, 2. Although individual att...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Nature Publishing Group
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/196185 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2991 |
id |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/196185 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/196185 2024-10-20T14:09:29+00:00 Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 Slagen, A. Church, J. Agosta, Cécile Fettweis, Xavier Marzeion, B. Richter, K. 2016-04-11 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/196185 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2991 en eng Nature Publishing Group http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2991.html urn:issn:1758-678X urn:issn:1758-6798 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/196185 info:hdl:2268/196185 doi:10.1038/nclimate2991 restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Nature Climate Change (2016-04-11) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2016 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2991 2024-09-27T07:01:44Z peer reviewed Sea-level change is an important consequence of anthropogenic climate change, as higher sea levels increase the frequency of sea-level extremes and the impact of coastal flooding and erosion on the coastal environment, infrastructure and coastal communities1, 2. Although individual attribution studies have been done for ocean thermal expansion3, 4 and glacier mass loss5, two of the largest contributors to twentieth-century sea-level rise, this has not been done for the other contributors or total global mean sea-level change (GMSLC). Here, we evaluate the influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols, natural radiative forcings and internal climate variability on sea-level contributions of ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, ice-sheet surface mass balance and total GMSLC. For each contribution, dedicated models are forced with results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model archive6. The sum of all included contributions explains 74 ± 22% (±2σ) of the observed GMSLC over the period 1900–2005. The natural radiative forcing makes essentially zero contribution over the twentieth century (2 ± 15% over the period 1900–2005), but combined with the response to past climatic variations explains 67 ± 23% of the observed rise before 1950 and only 9 ± 18% after 1970 (38 ± 12% over the period 1900–2005). In contrast, the anthropogenic forcing (primarily a balance between a positive sea-level contribution from GHGs and a partially offsetting component from anthropogenic aerosols) explains only 15 ± 55% of the observations before 1950, but increases to become the dominant contribution to sea-level rise after 1970 (69 ± 31%), reaching 72 ± 39% in 2000 (37 ± 38% over the period 1900–2005). Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Nature Climate Change 6 7 701 705 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Slagen, A. Church, J. Agosta, Cécile Fettweis, Xavier Marzeion, B. Richter, K. Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Sea-level change is an important consequence of anthropogenic climate change, as higher sea levels increase the frequency of sea-level extremes and the impact of coastal flooding and erosion on the coastal environment, infrastructure and coastal communities1, 2. Although individual attribution studies have been done for ocean thermal expansion3, 4 and glacier mass loss5, two of the largest contributors to twentieth-century sea-level rise, this has not been done for the other contributors or total global mean sea-level change (GMSLC). Here, we evaluate the influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols, natural radiative forcings and internal climate variability on sea-level contributions of ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, ice-sheet surface mass balance and total GMSLC. For each contribution, dedicated models are forced with results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model archive6. The sum of all included contributions explains 74 ± 22% (±2σ) of the observed GMSLC over the period 1900–2005. The natural radiative forcing makes essentially zero contribution over the twentieth century (2 ± 15% over the period 1900–2005), but combined with the response to past climatic variations explains 67 ± 23% of the observed rise before 1950 and only 9 ± 18% after 1970 (38 ± 12% over the period 1900–2005). In contrast, the anthropogenic forcing (primarily a balance between a positive sea-level contribution from GHGs and a partially offsetting component from anthropogenic aerosols) explains only 15 ± 55% of the observations before 1950, but increases to become the dominant contribution to sea-level rise after 1970 (69 ± 31%), reaching 72 ± 39% in 2000 (37 ± 38% over the period 1900–2005). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Slagen, A. Church, J. Agosta, Cécile Fettweis, Xavier Marzeion, B. Richter, K. |
author_facet |
Slagen, A. Church, J. Agosta, Cécile Fettweis, Xavier Marzeion, B. Richter, K. |
author_sort |
Slagen, A. |
title |
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 |
title_short |
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 |
title_full |
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 |
title_sort |
anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970 |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/196185 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2991 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nature Climate Change (2016-04-11) |
op_relation |
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2991.html urn:issn:1758-678X urn:issn:1758-6798 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/196185 info:hdl:2268/196185 doi:10.1038/nclimate2991 |
op_rights |
restricted access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2991 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
701 |
op_container_end_page |
705 |
_version_ |
1813449019149516800 |