Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance
peer reviewed The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet cannot be reliably deduced from global climate models (GCMs), both because their spatial resolution is insufficient and because their physics are not adapted for cold and snow-covered regions. By contrast, regional climate model...
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2015
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/182866 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/182866/1/tc-9-2311-2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/182866 2024-04-21T07:51:37+00:00 Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance Agosta, Cécile Fettweis, Xavier Datta, Rajashree 2015 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/182866 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/182866/1/tc-9-2311-2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 unknown Copernicus http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2311/2015/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/182866 info:hdl:2268/182866 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/182866/1/tc-9-2311-2015.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84949183463 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 9, 2311-2321 (2015) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2015 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet cannot be reliably deduced from global climate models (GCMs), both because their spatial resolution is insufficient and because their physics are not adapted for cold and snow-covered regions. By contrast, regional climate models (RCMs) adapted for polar regions can physically and dynamically downscale SMB components over the ice sheet using large-scale forcing at their boundaries. Polar-oriented RCMs require appropriate GCM fields for forcing because the response of the cryosphere to a warming climate is dependent on its initial state and is not linear with respect to temperature increase. In this context, we evaluate the current climate in 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data set over Antarctica by focusing on forcing fields which may have the greatest impact on SMB components simulated by RCMs. Our inter-comparison includes six reanalyses, among which ERA-Interim reanalysis is chosen as a reference over 1979–2014. Model efficiency is assessed taking into account the multi-decadal variability of the fields over the 1850–1980 period. We show that fewer than 10 CMIP5 models show reasonable biases compared to ERA-Interim, among which ACCESS1-3 is the most pertinent choice for forcing RCMs over Antarctica, followed by ACCESS1-0, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, NorESM1-M, CCSM4 and EC-EARTH. Finally, climate change over the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 is less sensitive to the global warming signal than it is to the present-day simulated sea-ice extent and to the feedback between sea-ice decrease and air temperature increase around Antarctica. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 9 6 2311 2321 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Agosta, Cécile Fettweis, Xavier Datta, Rajashree Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet cannot be reliably deduced from global climate models (GCMs), both because their spatial resolution is insufficient and because their physics are not adapted for cold and snow-covered regions. By contrast, regional climate models (RCMs) adapted for polar regions can physically and dynamically downscale SMB components over the ice sheet using large-scale forcing at their boundaries. Polar-oriented RCMs require appropriate GCM fields for forcing because the response of the cryosphere to a warming climate is dependent on its initial state and is not linear with respect to temperature increase. In this context, we evaluate the current climate in 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data set over Antarctica by focusing on forcing fields which may have the greatest impact on SMB components simulated by RCMs. Our inter-comparison includes six reanalyses, among which ERA-Interim reanalysis is chosen as a reference over 1979–2014. Model efficiency is assessed taking into account the multi-decadal variability of the fields over the 1850–1980 period. We show that fewer than 10 CMIP5 models show reasonable biases compared to ERA-Interim, among which ACCESS1-3 is the most pertinent choice for forcing RCMs over Antarctica, followed by ACCESS1-0, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, NorESM1-M, CCSM4 and EC-EARTH. Finally, climate change over the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 is less sensitive to the global warming signal than it is to the present-day simulated sea-ice extent and to the feedback between sea-ice decrease and air temperature increase around Antarctica. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Agosta, Cécile Fettweis, Xavier Datta, Rajashree |
author_facet |
Agosta, Cécile Fettweis, Xavier Datta, Rajashree |
author_sort |
Agosta, Cécile |
title |
Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance |
title_short |
Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance |
title_full |
Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance |
title_sort |
evaluation of the cmip5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the antarctic surface mass balance |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/182866 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/182866/1/tc-9-2311-2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 9, 2311-2321 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2311/2015/ urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/182866 info:hdl:2268/182866 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/182866/1/tc-9-2311-2015.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84949183463 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2311 |
op_container_end_page |
2321 |
_version_ |
1796934956135481344 |