Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: Lang, Charlotte, Fettweis, Xavier, Erpicum, Michel
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus 2015
• Subjects: Svalbard; regional climate model; surface mass balance; Physical; chemical; mathematical & earth Sciences; Earth sciences & physical geography; Physique; chimie; mathématiques & sciences de la terre; Sciences de la terre & géographie physique; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/181297; https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/181297/1/lang_et_al_2015b_futur.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015

peer reviewed We simulated the 21st century Svalbard SMB with the regional model MAR (RCP8.5 scenario). Melt is projected to increase gently up to 2050 and then dramatically increase, with a larger increase in the south of the archipelago. This difference is due to larger ice albedo decrease in the south causing larger increase of absorbed solar radiation. The ablation area is projected to disappear over the entire Svalbard by 2085. The SMB decrease compared to present is projected to contribute 7mm to SLR.