Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations
peer reviewed Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
International Glaciological Society
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/153326 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/153326/1/Goelzer-2013-JofGlacio%20%28GRD%2cfuture%20projections%2c%20ice%20sheet%20mass%20balance%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
id |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/153326 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/153326 2024-04-21T08:02:29+00:00 Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Furst, Johannes Jakob Nick, F. Andersen, M. Eswards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Payne, A. Shannon, S. 2013-07 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/153326 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/153326/1/Goelzer-2013-JofGlacio%20%28GRD%2cfuture%20projections%2c%20ice%20sheet%20mass%20balance%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 en eng International Glaciological Society info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://www.igsoc.org/journal/59/216/j12J182.html urn:issn:0022-1430 urn:issn:1727-5652 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/153326 info:hdl:2268/153326 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/153326/1/Goelzer-2013-JofGlacio%20%28GRD%2cfuture%20projections%2c%20ice%20sheet%20mass%20balance%29.pdf doi:10.3189/2013JoG12J182 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84883311893 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Journal of Glaciology, 59 (216), 733–749 (2013-07) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2013 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 2024-03-27T14:54:04Z peer reviewed Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) Journal of Glaciology 59 216 733 749 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Furst, Johannes Jakob Nick, F. Andersen, M. Eswards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Payne, A. Shannon, S. Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Furst, Johannes Jakob Nick, F. Andersen, M. Eswards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Payne, A. Shannon, S. |
author_facet |
Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Furst, Johannes Jakob Nick, F. Andersen, M. Eswards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Payne, A. Shannon, S. |
author_sort |
Goelzer, H. |
title |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_short |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_full |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_sort |
sensitivity of greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
publisher |
International Glaciological Society |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/153326 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/153326/1/Goelzer-2013-JofGlacio%20%28GRD%2cfuture%20projections%2c%20ice%20sheet%20mass%20balance%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, 59 (216), 733–749 (2013-07) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://www.igsoc.org/journal/59/216/j12J182.html urn:issn:0022-1430 urn:issn:1727-5652 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/153326 info:hdl:2268/153326 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/153326/1/Goelzer-2013-JofGlacio%20%28GRD%2cfuture%20projections%2c%20ice%20sheet%20mass%20balance%29.pdf doi:10.3189/2013JoG12J182 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84883311893 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
59 |
container_issue |
216 |
container_start_page |
733 |
op_container_end_page |
749 |
_version_ |
1796942668401475584 |