Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet
peer reviewed We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change usi...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143894 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143894/1/tc-8-195-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 |
id |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/143894 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/143894 2024-04-21T08:03:41+00:00 Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet Edwards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, P. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. 2014-01-31 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143894 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143894/1/tc-8-195-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/195/2014/tc-8-195-2014.html urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143894 info:hdl:2268/143894 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143894/1/tc-8-195-2014.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84893267891 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 8, 195-208 (2014-01-31) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2014 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9%) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0%) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 8 1 195 208 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Edwards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, P. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9%) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0%) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, P. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. |
author_facet |
Edwards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, P. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. |
author_sort |
Edwards, T. |
title |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_short |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_sort |
effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the greenland ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143894 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143894/1/tc-8-195-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 8, 195-208 (2014-01-31) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/195/2014/tc-8-195-2014.html urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143894 info:hdl:2268/143894 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143894/1/tc-8-195-2014.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84893267891 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
195 |
op_container_end_page |
208 |
_version_ |
1796943435609931776 |