Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet
peer reviewed We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The moti...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2014
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143893 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143893/1/tc-8-181-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/143893 2024-04-21T08:03:41+00:00 Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet Edwards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, Ph. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. 2014-01-30 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143893 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143893/1/tc-8-181-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/181/2014/tc-8-181-2014.html urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143893 info:hdl:2268/143893 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143893/1/tc-8-181-2014.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84893261118 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 8, 181-194 (2014-01-30) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2014 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kg m−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kg m−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kg m−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 8 1 181 194 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Edwards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, Ph. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kg m−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kg m−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kg m−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, Ph. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. |
author_facet |
Edwards, T. Fettweis, Xavier Gagliardini, O. Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Goelzer, H. Gregory, J. Hoffman, M. Huybrechts, Ph. Payne, A. Perego, M. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Ritz, C. |
author_sort |
Edwards, T. |
title |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_short |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_sort |
probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the greenland ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143893 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143893/1/tc-8-181-2014.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 8, 181-194 (2014-01-30) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/181/2014/tc-8-181-2014.html urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/143893 info:hdl:2268/143893 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/143893/1/tc-8-181-2014.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84893261118 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-181-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
181 |
op_container_end_page |
194 |
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1796943435801821184 |