Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by 2 CMIP5 global models.
As part of the ICE2SEA project, the regional climate model MAR was forced by the global models HadCM3 and ECHAM5 for making future projections of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over 1980-2099 at a resolution of 25km. However, the comparison with MAR forced by the ERA-40 re...
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/141679 2024-04-21T08:03:39+00:00 Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by 2 CMIP5 global models. Fettweis, Xavier Franco, Bruno 2012-02-14 20 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/141679 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/141679/1/fettweis-ice2sea-MAR%20GrIS%20future%20projections.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/141679 info:hdl:2268/141679 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/141679/1/fettweis-ice2sea-MAR%20GrIS%20future%20projections.pdf open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 3rd ICE2SEA Open Forum, Amsterdam, Netherlands [NL], from 14-02-2012 to 16-02-2012 Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique conference paper not in proceedings http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cp info:eu-repo/semantics/conferencePaper 2012 ftorbi 2024-03-27T14:45:27Z As part of the ICE2SEA project, the regional climate model MAR was forced by the global models HadCM3 and ECHAM5 for making future projections of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over 1980-2099 at a resolution of 25km. However, the comparison with MAR forced by the ERA-40 reanalysis over 1980-1999 shows that MAR forced by these GCMs is not able to represent reliably the current SMB due to biases in the general circulation and in the free atmosphere summer temperature modelled by these GCMs around the GrIS. That is why, we present here first results of MAR forced by the next generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 data base (CanESM2 and NorESM1 here). The comparison with the ERA-40 forced MAR simulations over current climate is a lot of better, which increases the reliability and the interest of these new MAR projections. In addition, the new scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) of the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) are used here. These new simulations show notably that the response of SMB to rising temperature is not a linear function of the temperature anomalies due to the positive albedo feedback which accelerates the surface melt. For 2100, in case of extreme rising temperature (RCP 8.5 scenario), MAR simulates a surface GrIS mass loss corresponding to a cumulated sea level rise of about 15 cm since 2000! Mainly the changes in SMB and in surface energy balance will be discussed here. Conference Object Greenland Ice Sheet University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Fettweis, Xavier Franco, Bruno Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by 2 CMIP5 global models. |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
As part of the ICE2SEA project, the regional climate model MAR was forced by the global models HadCM3 and ECHAM5 for making future projections of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over 1980-2099 at a resolution of 25km. However, the comparison with MAR forced by the ERA-40 reanalysis over 1980-1999 shows that MAR forced by these GCMs is not able to represent reliably the current SMB due to biases in the general circulation and in the free atmosphere summer temperature modelled by these GCMs around the GrIS. That is why, we present here first results of MAR forced by the next generation of GCMs from the CMIP5 data base (CanESM2 and NorESM1 here). The comparison with the ERA-40 forced MAR simulations over current climate is a lot of better, which increases the reliability and the interest of these new MAR projections. In addition, the new scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) of the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) are used here. These new simulations show notably that the response of SMB to rising temperature is not a linear function of the temperature anomalies due to the positive albedo feedback which accelerates the surface melt. For 2100, in case of extreme rising temperature (RCP 8.5 scenario), MAR simulates a surface GrIS mass loss corresponding to a cumulated sea level rise of about 15 cm since 2000! Mainly the changes in SMB and in surface energy balance will be discussed here. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Fettweis, Xavier Franco, Bruno |
author_facet |
Fettweis, Xavier Franco, Bruno |
author_sort |
Fettweis, Xavier |
title |
Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by 2 CMIP5 global models. |
title_short |
Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by 2 CMIP5 global models. |
title_full |
Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by 2 CMIP5 global models. |
title_fullStr |
Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by 2 CMIP5 global models. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by 2 CMIP5 global models. |
title_sort |
future projections of the greenland ice sheet climate simulated by the regional climate model mar forced by 2 cmip5 global models. |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/141679 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/141679/1/fettweis-ice2sea-MAR%20GrIS%20future%20projections.pdf |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
3rd ICE2SEA Open Forum, Amsterdam, Netherlands [NL], from 14-02-2012 to 16-02-2012 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/141679 info:hdl:2268/141679 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/141679/1/fettweis-ice2sea-MAR%20GrIS%20future%20projections.pdf |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
_version_ |
1796943414836592640 |