Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR
peer reviewed To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coup...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/129284 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/129284/1/tc-7-469-2013.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013 |
id |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/129284 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/129284 2024-04-21T08:03:27+00:00 Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR Fettweis, Xavier Franco, Bruno Tedesco, M. van Angelen, J. Lenaerts, J. van den Broeke, M. Gallée, H. 2013-03-14 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/129284 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/129284/1/tc-7-469-2013.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013 en eng Copernicus info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/469/2013/tc-7-469-2013.html urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/129284 info:hdl:2268/129284 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/129284/1/tc-7-469-2013.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-7-469-2013 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84937031136 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 7, 469-489 (2013-03-14) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2013 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 7 2 469 489 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Fettweis, Xavier Franco, Bruno Tedesco, M. van Angelen, J. Lenaerts, J. van den Broeke, M. Gallée, H. Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fettweis, Xavier Franco, Bruno Tedesco, M. van Angelen, J. Lenaerts, J. van den Broeke, M. Gallée, H. |
author_facet |
Fettweis, Xavier Franco, Bruno Tedesco, M. van Angelen, J. Lenaerts, J. van den Broeke, M. Gallée, H. |
author_sort |
Fettweis, Xavier |
title |
Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR |
title_short |
Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR |
title_full |
Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR |
title_sort |
estimating the greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model mar |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/129284 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/129284/1/tc-7-469-2013.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 7, 469-489 (2013-03-14) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/226375 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/469/2013/tc-7-469-2013.html urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/129284 info:hdl:2268/129284 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/129284/1/tc-7-469-2013.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-7-469-2013 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84937031136 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
469 |
op_container_end_page |
489 |
_version_ |
1796943292482453504 |