Simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet
peer reviewed We present a new method of modelling the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet, based on routing runoff estimated by a regional climate model across a digital elevation model (DEM) of the ice sheet surface. Using data acquired during the 2003 mel...
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2012
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Online Access: | https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/125386 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/125386/1/tc-6-1077-2012.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 |
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ftorbi:oai:orbi.ulg.ac.be:2268/125386 2024-04-21T08:03:29+00:00 Simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet Leeson, A. Shepherd, A. Palmer, S. Sundal, A. Fettweis, Xavier 2012-10-02 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/125386 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/125386/1/tc-6-1077-2012.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 en eng Copernicus http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1077/2012/tc-6-1077-2012.html urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/125386 info:hdl:2268/125386 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/125386/1/tc-6-1077-2012.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84867441705 open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, 6, 1077-1086 (2012-10-02) Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:eu-repo/semantics/article peer reviewed 2012 ftorbi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 2024-03-27T14:58:15Z peer reviewed We present a new method of modelling the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet, based on routing runoff estimated by a regional climate model across a digital elevation model (DEM) of the ice sheet surface. Using data acquired during the 2003 melt season, we demonstrate that the model is 19 times more likely to correctly predict the presence (or absence) of lakes than it is to make incorrect predictions, within an elevation range of 1100 to 1700 metres above sea level (m a.s.l.), when compared with MODIS satellite imagery. Of the 66% of observed lake locations which the model correctly reproduces, the simulated lake onset day is found to be correlated with that observed with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.76. Our model accurately simulates maximum cumulative lake area with only a 1.5% overestimate. However, because our model does not simulate processes leading to lake stagnation or decay, such as refreezing or drainage, at present we do not simulate absolute daily lake area. We find that the maximum potential lake-covered ice sheet area is limited by topography to 6.4%. We estimate that this corresponds to a volume of 1.49 km3, 12% of the runoff produced in 2003. This can be taken as an upper bound given uncertainty in the DEM. This study has proved a good first step towards capturing the variability of supraglacial lake evolution with a numerical model. These initial results are promising and suggest that the model is a useful tool for use in analysing the behaviour of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet in the present day and potentially beyond. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) The Cryosphere 6 5 1077 1086 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Liège: ORBi (Open Repository and Bibliography) |
op_collection_id |
ftorbi |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
spellingShingle |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique Leeson, A. Shepherd, A. Palmer, S. Sundal, A. Fettweis, Xavier Simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet |
topic_facet |
Physical chemical mathematical & earth Sciences Earth sciences & physical geography Physique chimie mathématiques & sciences de la terre Sciences de la terre & géographie physique |
description |
peer reviewed We present a new method of modelling the growth of supraglacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet, based on routing runoff estimated by a regional climate model across a digital elevation model (DEM) of the ice sheet surface. Using data acquired during the 2003 melt season, we demonstrate that the model is 19 times more likely to correctly predict the presence (or absence) of lakes than it is to make incorrect predictions, within an elevation range of 1100 to 1700 metres above sea level (m a.s.l.), when compared with MODIS satellite imagery. Of the 66% of observed lake locations which the model correctly reproduces, the simulated lake onset day is found to be correlated with that observed with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.76. Our model accurately simulates maximum cumulative lake area with only a 1.5% overestimate. However, because our model does not simulate processes leading to lake stagnation or decay, such as refreezing or drainage, at present we do not simulate absolute daily lake area. We find that the maximum potential lake-covered ice sheet area is limited by topography to 6.4%. We estimate that this corresponds to a volume of 1.49 km3, 12% of the runoff produced in 2003. This can be taken as an upper bound given uncertainty in the DEM. This study has proved a good first step towards capturing the variability of supraglacial lake evolution with a numerical model. These initial results are promising and suggest that the model is a useful tool for use in analysing the behaviour of supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet in the present day and potentially beyond. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Leeson, A. Shepherd, A. Palmer, S. Sundal, A. Fettweis, Xavier |
author_facet |
Leeson, A. Shepherd, A. Palmer, S. Sundal, A. Fettweis, Xavier |
author_sort |
Leeson, A. |
title |
Simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_short |
Simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full |
Simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_fullStr |
Simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet |
title_sort |
simulating the growth of supra-glacial lakes at the western margin of the greenland ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/125386 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/125386/1/tc-6-1077-2012.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, 6, 1077-1086 (2012-10-02) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/1077/2012/tc-6-1077-2012.html urn:issn:1994-0416 urn:issn:1994-0424 https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/125386 info:hdl:2268/125386 https://orbi.uliege.be/bitstream/2268/125386/1/tc-6-1077-2012.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 scopus-id:2-s2.0-84867441705 |
op_rights |
open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1077-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1077 |
op_container_end_page |
1086 |
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1796943314658787328 |