Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection
Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or w...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/817 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 |
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ftopinvisindi:oai:opinvisindi.is:20.500.11815/817 2023-05-15T16:52:11+02:00 Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection Mackay, Jonathan D. Barrand, Nicholas E. Hannah, David M. Krause, Stefan Jackson, Christopher R. Everest, Jez Adalgeirsdottir, Gudfinna Jarðvísindastofnun (HÍ) Institute of Earth Sciences (UI) Verkfræði- og náttúruvísindasvið (HÍ) School of Engineering and Natural Sciences (UI) Háskóli Íslands University of Iceland 2018-07-06 2175-2210 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/817 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 en eng Copernicus GmbH The Cryosphere;12(7) Mackay, J. D., Barrand, N. E., Hannah, D. M., Krause, S., Jackson, C. R., Everest, J., and Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.: Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection, The Cryosphere, 12, 2175-2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018, 2018. 1994-0416 1994-0424 (eISSN) https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/817 The Cryosphere doi:10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Jöklafræði Loftslagsbreytingar Straumvötn Bráðnun (jöklafræði) info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2018 ftopinvisindi https://doi.org/20.500.11815/817 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 2022-11-18T06:51:38Z Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland The Cryosphere Opin vísindi (Iceland) Fuller ENVELOPE(162.350,162.350,-77.867,-77.867) The Cryosphere 12 7 2175 2210 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Opin vísindi (Iceland) |
op_collection_id |
ftopinvisindi |
language |
English |
topic |
Jöklafræði Loftslagsbreytingar Straumvötn Bráðnun (jöklafræði) |
spellingShingle |
Jöklafræði Loftslagsbreytingar Straumvötn Bráðnun (jöklafræði) Mackay, Jonathan D. Barrand, Nicholas E. Hannah, David M. Krause, Stefan Jackson, Christopher R. Everest, Jez Adalgeirsdottir, Gudfinna Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
topic_facet |
Jöklafræði Loftslagsbreytingar Straumvötn Bráðnun (jöklafræði) |
description |
Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model ... |
author2 |
Jarðvísindastofnun (HÍ) Institute of Earth Sciences (UI) Verkfræði- og náttúruvísindasvið (HÍ) School of Engineering and Natural Sciences (UI) Háskóli Íslands University of Iceland |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mackay, Jonathan D. Barrand, Nicholas E. Hannah, David M. Krause, Stefan Jackson, Christopher R. Everest, Jez Adalgeirsdottir, Gudfinna |
author_facet |
Mackay, Jonathan D. Barrand, Nicholas E. Hannah, David M. Krause, Stefan Jackson, Christopher R. Everest, Jez Adalgeirsdottir, Gudfinna |
author_sort |
Mackay, Jonathan D. |
title |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_short |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_full |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_fullStr |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_sort |
glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/817 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(162.350,162.350,-77.867,-77.867) |
geographic |
Fuller |
geographic_facet |
Fuller |
genre |
Iceland The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Iceland The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere;12(7) Mackay, J. D., Barrand, N. E., Hannah, D. M., Krause, S., Jackson, C. R., Everest, J., and Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.: Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection, The Cryosphere, 12, 2175-2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018, 2018. 1994-0416 1994-0424 (eISSN) https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/817 The Cryosphere doi:10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11815/817 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2175 |
op_container_end_page |
2210 |
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1766042344586477568 |