Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population
Publisher's version (útgefin grein) Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distrib...
Published in: | Ecology and Evolution |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1800 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4746 |
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ftopinvisindi:oai:opinvisindi.is:20.500.11815/1800 2023-05-15T16:47:41+02:00 Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population Alves, Jose Gunnarsson, Tomas Gretar Sutherland, William J. Potts, Peter M. Gill, J. A. Rannsóknasetur Suðurlandi (HÍ) Research Centre in South Iceland (UI) Háskóli Íslands University of Iceland 2019-02-14 2365-2375 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1800 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4746 en eng Wiley Ecology and Evolution;9(5) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.4746 Alves, JA, Gunnarsson, TG, Sutherland, WJ, Potts, PM, Gill, JA. Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population. Ecol Evol. 2019; 9: 2365– 2375. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4746 2045-7758 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1800 Ecology and Evolution doi:10.1002/ece3.4746 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climate change Population dynamics Species distribution Temperature Waders Loftslagsbreytingar Vaðfuglar Fuglafar info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftopinvisindi https://doi.org/20.500.11815/1800 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4746 2022-11-18T06:51:56Z Publisher's version (útgefin grein) Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change. We thank Lilja Jóhannesdóttir, Borgný Katrínardóttir, Verónica Méndez, Sara Pardal, Juan Carlos Illera, Graham Appleton and Ruth Croger for help in the field, Catriona Morrison and Maria Dias for ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Limosa limosa Opin vísindi (Iceland) Morrison ENVELOPE(-63.533,-63.533,-66.167,-66.167) Ecology and Evolution 9 5 2365 2375 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Opin vísindi (Iceland) |
op_collection_id |
ftopinvisindi |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Population dynamics Species distribution Temperature Waders Loftslagsbreytingar Vaðfuglar Fuglafar |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Population dynamics Species distribution Temperature Waders Loftslagsbreytingar Vaðfuglar Fuglafar Alves, Jose Gunnarsson, Tomas Gretar Sutherland, William J. Potts, Peter M. Gill, J. A. Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population |
topic_facet |
Climate change Population dynamics Species distribution Temperature Waders Loftslagsbreytingar Vaðfuglar Fuglafar |
description |
Publisher's version (útgefin grein) Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change. We thank Lilja Jóhannesdóttir, Borgný Katrínardóttir, Verónica Méndez, Sara Pardal, Juan Carlos Illera, Graham Appleton and Ruth Croger for help in the field, Catriona Morrison and Maria Dias for ... |
author2 |
Rannsóknasetur Suðurlandi (HÍ) Research Centre in South Iceland (UI) Háskóli Íslands University of Iceland |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alves, Jose Gunnarsson, Tomas Gretar Sutherland, William J. Potts, Peter M. Gill, J. A. |
author_facet |
Alves, Jose Gunnarsson, Tomas Gretar Sutherland, William J. Potts, Peter M. Gill, J. A. |
author_sort |
Alves, Jose |
title |
Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population |
title_short |
Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population |
title_full |
Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population |
title_fullStr |
Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population |
title_full_unstemmed |
Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population |
title_sort |
linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1800 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4746 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-63.533,-63.533,-66.167,-66.167) |
geographic |
Morrison |
geographic_facet |
Morrison |
genre |
Iceland Limosa limosa |
genre_facet |
Iceland Limosa limosa |
op_relation |
Ecology and Evolution;9(5) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.4746 Alves, JA, Gunnarsson, TG, Sutherland, WJ, Potts, PM, Gill, JA. Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population. Ecol Evol. 2019; 9: 2365– 2375. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4746 2045-7758 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11815/1800 Ecology and Evolution doi:10.1002/ece3.4746 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/20.500.11815/1800 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4746 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2365 |
op_container_end_page |
2375 |
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1766037776502882304 |