Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability
Predictions for sea-level rise from Antarctica this century range from zero to over one metre. The highest are driven by the controversial ‘marine ice cliff instability’ (MICI) hypothesis, where coastal ice cliffs rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate from surface and sub-shelf melting cau...
id |
ftopenunivgb:oai:oro.open.ac.uk:58538 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftopenunivgb:oai:oro.open.ac.uk:58538 2023-06-11T04:06:39+02:00 Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability Edwards, Tamsin L. Brandon, Mark A. Durand, Gael Edwards, Neil R. ; , ; 2019 application/pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/1/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/7/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/13/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/14/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/145/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/167/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/470/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/7050/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/8458/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/9088/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/9614/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/11317/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/11523/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 unknown https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/1/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/7/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/13/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/14/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/145/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/167/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/470/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/7050/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/8458/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/9088/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/9614/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/11317/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/11523/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf Edwards, Tamsin L. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/tle47.html>; Brandon, Mark A. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/mab49.html>; Durand, Gael; Edwards, Neil R. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/nre29.html>; <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/pbh56.html>; and (2019). Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability. Nature, 566 pp. 58–64. Journal Item Public PeerReviewed 2019 ftopenunivgb https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 2023-05-28T05:58:48Z Predictions for sea-level rise from Antarctica this century range from zero to over one metre. The highest are driven by the controversial ‘marine ice cliff instability’ (MICI) hypothesis, where coastal ice cliffs rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate from surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. Here we quantify ice sheet modelling uncertainties for the MICI study and show the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (most likely value: 45 cm under very high greenhouse gas concentrations). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes in the mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial or 1992-2017, and without it the results agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 cm). We therefore find previous interpretations of the MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century. The hypothesis is still poorly-constrained: confidence in projections with MICI would require much greater diversity in models of ice shelf vulnerability and ice cliff collapse. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) Antarctic Nature 566 7742 58 64 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) |
op_collection_id |
ftopenunivgb |
language |
unknown |
description |
Predictions for sea-level rise from Antarctica this century range from zero to over one metre. The highest are driven by the controversial ‘marine ice cliff instability’ (MICI) hypothesis, where coastal ice cliffs rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate from surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. Here we quantify ice sheet modelling uncertainties for the MICI study and show the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (most likely value: 45 cm under very high greenhouse gas concentrations). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes in the mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial or 1992-2017, and without it the results agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 cm). We therefore find previous interpretations of the MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century. The hypothesis is still poorly-constrained: confidence in projections with MICI would require much greater diversity in models of ice shelf vulnerability and ice cliff collapse. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Brandon, Mark A. Durand, Gael Edwards, Neil R. ; , ; |
spellingShingle |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Brandon, Mark A. Durand, Gael Edwards, Neil R. ; , ; Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability |
author_facet |
Edwards, Tamsin L. Brandon, Mark A. Durand, Gael Edwards, Neil R. ; , ; |
author_sort |
Edwards, Tamsin L. |
title |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability |
title_short |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability |
title_full |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability |
title_fullStr |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability |
title_sort |
revisiting antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/1/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/7/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/13/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/14/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/145/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/167/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/470/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/7050/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/8458/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/9088/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/9614/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/11317/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/11523/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
op_relation |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/1/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/7/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/13/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/14/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/145/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature_ONLINE.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/167/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/470/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/7050/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/8458/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/9088/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/9614/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/11317/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/58538/11523/Edwards_et_al_2019_Nature.pdf Edwards, Tamsin L. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/tle47.html>; Brandon, Mark A. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/mab49.html>; Durand, Gael; Edwards, Neil R. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/nre29.html>; <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/pbh56.html>; and (2019). Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability. Nature, 566 pp. 58–64. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
566 |
container_issue |
7742 |
container_start_page |
58 |
op_container_end_page |
64 |
_version_ |
1768378703380742144 |