Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes
A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investig...
Published in: | Earth and Planetary Science Letters |
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ftopenunivgb:oai:oro.open.ac.uk:52526 2023-06-11T04:13:14+02:00 Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes Blake, Stephen Cortés, Joaquín A. 2018-01-01 application/pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/52526/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/52526/1/52526.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040 unknown https://oro.open.ac.uk/52526/1/52526.pdf Blake, Stephen <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/sb26.html> and Cortés, Joaquín A. (2018). Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 481 pp. 246–254. Journal Item Public PeerReviewed 2018 ftopenunivgb https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040 2023-05-28T05:56:27Z A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investigate the timing of intrusive and eruptive events at inflating volcanoes. The gradual inflation of the ground surface is a well known phenomenon at many volcanoes and is attributable to pressurised magma accumulating within a shallow chamber. Inflation usually culminates in a rapid deflation event caused by magma escaping from the chamber to produce a shallow intrusion and, in some cases, a volcanic eruption. We show that the ground elevation during 15 inflation periods at Krafla volcano, Iceland, increased with time towards a limiting value by following a decaying exponential with characteristic timescale τ . The available data for Krafla, Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes show that the duration of inflation (t∗) is approximately equal to τ . The distribution of t∗/τ values follows a log-logistic distribution in which the central 60% of the data lie between 0.99 < t∗/τ < 1.76. Therefore, if τ can be constrained during an on-going inflation period, then the cumulative distribution function of t∗/τ values calibrated from other inflation periods allows the probability of a deflation event starting during a specified time interval to be estimated. The time window in which there is a specified probability of deflation starting can also be forecast, and forecasts can be updated after each new deformation measurement. The method provides stronger forecasts than one based on the distribution of repose times alone and is transferable to other types of monitoring data and/or other patterns of pre-eruptive unrest. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) Krafla ENVELOPE(-16.747,-16.747,65.713,65.713) Earth and Planetary Science Letters 481 246 254 |
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The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) |
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A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investigate the timing of intrusive and eruptive events at inflating volcanoes. The gradual inflation of the ground surface is a well known phenomenon at many volcanoes and is attributable to pressurised magma accumulating within a shallow chamber. Inflation usually culminates in a rapid deflation event caused by magma escaping from the chamber to produce a shallow intrusion and, in some cases, a volcanic eruption. We show that the ground elevation during 15 inflation periods at Krafla volcano, Iceland, increased with time towards a limiting value by following a decaying exponential with characteristic timescale τ . The available data for Krafla, Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes show that the duration of inflation (t∗) is approximately equal to τ . The distribution of t∗/τ values follows a log-logistic distribution in which the central 60% of the data lie between 0.99 < t∗/τ < 1.76. Therefore, if τ can be constrained during an on-going inflation period, then the cumulative distribution function of t∗/τ values calibrated from other inflation periods allows the probability of a deflation event starting during a specified time interval to be estimated. The time window in which there is a specified probability of deflation starting can also be forecast, and forecasts can be updated after each new deformation measurement. The method provides stronger forecasts than one based on the distribution of repose times alone and is transferable to other types of monitoring data and/or other patterns of pre-eruptive unrest. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Blake, Stephen Cortés, Joaquín A. |
spellingShingle |
Blake, Stephen Cortés, Joaquín A. Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
author_facet |
Blake, Stephen Cortés, Joaquín A. |
author_sort |
Blake, Stephen |
title |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_short |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_full |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
title_sort |
forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/52526/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/52526/1/52526.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-16.747,-16.747,65.713,65.713) |
geographic |
Krafla |
geographic_facet |
Krafla |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/52526/1/52526.pdf Blake, Stephen <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/sb26.html> and Cortés, Joaquín A. (2018). Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 481 pp. 246–254. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.10.040 |
container_title |
Earth and Planetary Science Letters |
container_volume |
481 |
container_start_page |
246 |
op_container_end_page |
254 |
_version_ |
1768389992928772096 |