Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate
Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the fut...
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ftopenunivgb:oai:oro.open.ac.uk:48981 2023-06-11T04:11:54+02:00 Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate Nick, Faezeh M. Vieli, Andreas Andersen, Morten Langer Joughin, Ian Payne, Antony Edwards, Tamsin L. Pattyn, Frank van de Wal, Roderik S. W. 2013-05-09 application/msword application/pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/1/Nick_2013_Nature__Nick2013jp.doc https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/2/Nick_2013_Nature__Nick2013jp.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12068 unknown https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/1/Nick_2013_Nature__Nick2013jp.doc https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/2/Nick_2013_Nature__Nick2013jp.pdf Nick, Faezeh M.; Vieli, Andreas; Andersen, Morten Langer; Joughin, Ian; Payne, Antony; Edwards, Tamsin L. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/tle47.html>; Pattyn, Frank and van de Wal, Roderik S. W. (2013). Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate. Nature, 497(7448) pp. 235–238. Journal Item Public PeerReviewed 2013 ftopenunivgb https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12068 2023-05-28T05:55:08Z Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) Greenland Nature 497 7448 235 238 |
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Open Polar |
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The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) |
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description |
Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nick, Faezeh M. Vieli, Andreas Andersen, Morten Langer Joughin, Ian Payne, Antony Edwards, Tamsin L. Pattyn, Frank van de Wal, Roderik S. W. |
spellingShingle |
Nick, Faezeh M. Vieli, Andreas Andersen, Morten Langer Joughin, Ian Payne, Antony Edwards, Tamsin L. Pattyn, Frank van de Wal, Roderik S. W. Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
author_facet |
Nick, Faezeh M. Vieli, Andreas Andersen, Morten Langer Joughin, Ian Payne, Antony Edwards, Tamsin L. Pattyn, Frank van de Wal, Roderik S. W. |
author_sort |
Nick, Faezeh M. |
title |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_short |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_full |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
title_sort |
future sea-level rise from greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/1/Nick_2013_Nature__Nick2013jp.doc https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/2/Nick_2013_Nature__Nick2013jp.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12068 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/1/Nick_2013_Nature__Nick2013jp.doc https://oro.open.ac.uk/48981/2/Nick_2013_Nature__Nick2013jp.pdf Nick, Faezeh M.; Vieli, Andreas; Andersen, Morten Langer; Joughin, Ian; Payne, Antony; Edwards, Tamsin L. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/tle47.html>; Pattyn, Frank and van de Wal, Roderik S. W. (2013). Future sea-level rise from Greenland’s main outlet glaciers in a warming climate. Nature, 497(7448) pp. 235–238. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12068 |
container_title |
Nature |
container_volume |
497 |
container_issue |
7448 |
container_start_page |
235 |
op_container_end_page |
238 |
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1768387353008668672 |