Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations
Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow mode...
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Online Access: | https://oro.open.ac.uk/48979/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/48979/1/Goelzer_2013_Journal_of_Glaciology__Goelzer2013bs.pdf https://www.igsoc.org/journal/59/216/j12J182.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
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ftopenunivgb:oai:oro.open.ac.uk:48979 2023-06-11T04:11:55+02:00 Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Fürst, J. J. Nick, F. M. Andersen, M. L. Edwards, T. L. Fettweis, X. Payne, A. J. Shannon, S. 2013-08-01 application/pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/48979/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/48979/1/Goelzer_2013_Journal_of_Glaciology__Goelzer2013bs.pdf https://www.igsoc.org/journal/59/216/j12J182.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 unknown https://oro.open.ac.uk/48979/1/Goelzer_2013_Journal_of_Glaciology__Goelzer2013bs.pdf Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P.; Fürst, J. J.; Nick, F. M.; Andersen, M. L.; Edwards, T. L. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/tle47.html>; Fettweis, X.; Payne, A. J. and Shannon, S. (2013). Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations. Journal of Glaciology, 59(216) pp. 733–749. Journal Item Public PeerReviewed 2013 ftopenunivgb https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 2023-05-28T05:55:08Z Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) Greenland Journal of Glaciology 59 216 733 749 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) |
op_collection_id |
ftopenunivgb |
language |
unknown |
description |
Physically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31% higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Fürst, J. J. Nick, F. M. Andersen, M. L. Edwards, T. L. Fettweis, X. Payne, A. J. Shannon, S. |
spellingShingle |
Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Fürst, J. J. Nick, F. M. Andersen, M. L. Edwards, T. L. Fettweis, X. Payne, A. J. Shannon, S. Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
author_facet |
Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Fürst, J. J. Nick, F. M. Andersen, M. L. Edwards, T. L. Fettweis, X. Payne, A. J. Shannon, S. |
author_sort |
Goelzer, H. |
title |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_short |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_full |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_fullStr |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
title_sort |
sensitivity of greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/48979/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/48979/1/Goelzer_2013_Journal_of_Glaciology__Goelzer2013bs.pdf https://www.igsoc.org/journal/59/216/j12J182.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
op_relation |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/48979/1/Goelzer_2013_Journal_of_Glaciology__Goelzer2013bs.pdf Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P.; Fürst, J. J.; Nick, F. M.; Andersen, M. L.; Edwards, T. L. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/tle47.html>; Fettweis, X.; Payne, A. J. and Shannon, S. (2013). Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to model formulations. Journal of Glaciology, 59(216) pp. 733–749. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J182 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
59 |
container_issue |
216 |
container_start_page |
733 |
op_container_end_page |
749 |
_version_ |
1768387356612624384 |