Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates
Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the la...
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ftopenunivgb:oai:oro.open.ac.uk:39374 2023-06-11T04:12:36+02:00 Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates Feurdean, Angelica Bhagwat, Shonil A. Willis, Katherine J. Birks, H. John B Lischke, Heike Hickler, Thomas 2013-08-26 application/pdf https://oro.open.ac.uk/39374/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/39374/1/Feurdean-et-al-2013_PLoS-ONE.pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071797 unknown https://oro.open.ac.uk/39374/1/Feurdean-et-al-2013_PLoS-ONE.pdf Feurdean, Angelica; Bhagwat, Shonil A. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/sab2225.html>; Willis, Katherine J.; Birks, H. John B; Lischke, Heike and Hickler, Thomas (2013). Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates. PLoS ONE, 8(8), article no. e71797. Journal Item Public PeerReviewed 2013 ftopenunivgb https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071797 2023-05-28T05:50:48Z Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr –1 ) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr –1 ), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice permafrost The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) PLoS ONE 8 8 e71797 |
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The Open University: Open Research Online (ORO) |
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Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr –1 ) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr –1 ), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Feurdean, Angelica Bhagwat, Shonil A. Willis, Katherine J. Birks, H. John B Lischke, Heike Hickler, Thomas |
spellingShingle |
Feurdean, Angelica Bhagwat, Shonil A. Willis, Katherine J. Birks, H. John B Lischke, Heike Hickler, Thomas Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates |
author_facet |
Feurdean, Angelica Bhagwat, Shonil A. Willis, Katherine J. Birks, H. John B Lischke, Heike Hickler, Thomas |
author_sort |
Feurdean, Angelica |
title |
Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates |
title_short |
Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates |
title_full |
Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates |
title_fullStr |
Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates |
title_sort |
tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/39374/ https://oro.open.ac.uk/39374/1/Feurdean-et-al-2013_PLoS-ONE.pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071797 |
genre |
Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Ice permafrost |
op_relation |
https://oro.open.ac.uk/39374/1/Feurdean-et-al-2013_PLoS-ONE.pdf Feurdean, Angelica; Bhagwat, Shonil A. <http://oro.open.ac.uk/view/person/sab2225.html>; Willis, Katherine J.; Birks, H. John B; Lischke, Heike and Hickler, Thomas (2013). Tree migration-rates: narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates. PLoS ONE, 8(8), article no. e71797. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0071797 |
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PLoS ONE |
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8 |
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8 |
container_start_page |
e71797 |
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