Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change
Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect sys...
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ftopenagrar:oai:www.openagrar.de:timport_mods_00030630 2024-09-15T18:23:32+00:00 Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change Gröger, Joachim Paul Rumohr, Heye 2006 11 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2005.11.005 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/timport_mods_00030630 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/timport_derivate_00030630/dk039327.pdf eng eng Journal of sea research : JSR -- J Sea Res -- 1385-1101 -- 1316747-9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2005.11.005 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/timport_mods_00030630 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/timport_derivate_00030630/dk039327.pdf only signed in user info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess article Text macrobenthos long-term-dynamics climate NAO Western Baltic model article Text doc-type:article 2006 ftopenagrar https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2005.11.005 2024-07-08T23:56:24Z Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m- 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenAgrar (OA) Journal of Sea Research 55 4 266 277 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenAgrar (OA) |
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ftopenagrar |
language |
English |
topic |
article Text macrobenthos long-term-dynamics climate NAO Western Baltic model |
spellingShingle |
article Text macrobenthos long-term-dynamics climate NAO Western Baltic model Gröger, Joachim Paul Rumohr, Heye Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change |
topic_facet |
article Text macrobenthos long-term-dynamics climate NAO Western Baltic model |
description |
Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m- 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gröger, Joachim Paul Rumohr, Heye |
author_facet |
Gröger, Joachim Paul Rumohr, Heye |
author_sort |
Gröger, Joachim Paul |
title |
Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change |
title_short |
Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change |
title_full |
Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change |
title_fullStr |
Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change |
title_sort |
modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of western baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2005.11.005 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/timport_mods_00030630 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/timport_derivate_00030630/dk039327.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Journal of sea research : JSR -- J Sea Res -- 1385-1101 -- 1316747-9 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2005.11.005 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/timport_mods_00030630 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/timport_derivate_00030630/dk039327.pdf |
op_rights |
only signed in user info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2005.11.005 |
container_title |
Journal of Sea Research |
container_volume |
55 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
266 |
op_container_end_page |
277 |
_version_ |
1810463763256573952 |