Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections
Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector’s most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, gr...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568159 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/openagrar_mods_00064065 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00033085/dn062689.pdf |
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ftopenagrar:oai:www.openagrar.de:openagrar_mods_00064065 2023-05-15T15:32:59+02:00 Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections Kreiß, Cornelia Papathanasopoulou, Eleni Hamon, Katell Gaelle Pinnegar, John K. Rybicki, Sandra Micallef, Giulia Tabeau, Andrzej Cubillo, Alhambra M. Peck, Myron A. 2020-09-29 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568159 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/openagrar_mods_00064065 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00033085/dn062689.pdf eng eng Frontiers in marine science -- Front. Mar. Sci -- 2296-7745 -- 2757748-X https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568159 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/openagrar_mods_00064065 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00033085/dn062689.pdf public https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY Text ddc:570 climate change -- aquaculture -- scenario -- socio-political -- economic -- Atlantic salmon -- carp -- typical farm article Text 2020 ftopenagrar https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568159 2023-03-06T00:09:36Z Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector’s most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of “typical farms” in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed “World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship.” These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon OpenAgrar (OA) Frontiers in Marine Science 7 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenAgrar (OA) |
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ftopenagrar |
language |
English |
topic |
Text ddc:570 climate change -- aquaculture -- scenario -- socio-political -- economic -- Atlantic salmon -- carp -- typical farm |
spellingShingle |
Text ddc:570 climate change -- aquaculture -- scenario -- socio-political -- economic -- Atlantic salmon -- carp -- typical farm Kreiß, Cornelia Papathanasopoulou, Eleni Hamon, Katell Gaelle Pinnegar, John K. Rybicki, Sandra Micallef, Giulia Tabeau, Andrzej Cubillo, Alhambra M. Peck, Myron A. Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections |
topic_facet |
Text ddc:570 climate change -- aquaculture -- scenario -- socio-political -- economic -- Atlantic salmon -- carp -- typical farm |
description |
Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector’s most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of “typical farms” in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed “World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship.” These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kreiß, Cornelia Papathanasopoulou, Eleni Hamon, Katell Gaelle Pinnegar, John K. Rybicki, Sandra Micallef, Giulia Tabeau, Andrzej Cubillo, Alhambra M. Peck, Myron A. |
author_facet |
Kreiß, Cornelia Papathanasopoulou, Eleni Hamon, Katell Gaelle Pinnegar, John K. Rybicki, Sandra Micallef, Giulia Tabeau, Andrzej Cubillo, Alhambra M. Peck, Myron A. |
author_sort |
Kreiß, Cornelia |
title |
Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections |
title_short |
Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections |
title_full |
Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections |
title_fullStr |
Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: An operationalized framework for aquaculture projections |
title_sort |
future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in europe: an operationalized framework for aquaculture projections |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568159 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/openagrar_mods_00064065 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00033085/dn062689.pdf |
genre |
Atlantic salmon |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon |
op_relation |
Frontiers in marine science -- Front. Mar. Sci -- 2296-7745 -- 2757748-X https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568159 https://www.openagrar.de/receive/openagrar_mods_00064065 https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00033085/dn062689.pdf |
op_rights |
public https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.568159 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
7 |
_version_ |
1766363463173537792 |