Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses
We investigate the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast modes. Specifically, th...
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ftopenaccessrep:oai:zenodo.org:21888 2023-05-15T17:36:08+02:00 Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses Bellucci, A. Gualdi, S. Masina, S. Storto, A. Scoccimarro, E. Cagnazzo, C. Fogli, P. Manzini, E. Navarra, A. 2013-01-01 https://www.openaccessrepository.it/record/21888 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015394 eng eng https://www.openaccessrepository.it/record/21888 doi:10.1029/2010JD015394 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess FP7 Environment (including Climate Change) European Commission EC SP1-Cooperation Earth-Surface Processes Ecology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Space and Planetary Science Palaeontology Forestry Aquatic Science Atmospheric Science Soil Science Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics Oceanography Water Science and Technology info:eu-repo/semantics/article publication-article 2013 ftopenaccessrep https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015394 2022-11-23T06:43:59Z We investigate the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast modes. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-member ensembles of 30-year simulations, starting at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2005, using historical radiative forcing conditions for the 1960-2005 period, followed by RCP4. 5 scenario settings for the 2006-2035 period. The ocean initial states are provided by ocean reanalyses differing by assimilation methods and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean reanalyses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system appears to be driven to large extent by trends in the radiative forcing. However, after detrending, a residual skill over specific regions of the ocean emerges in the near-term. Specifically, natural fluctuations in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) associated with large-scale multi-decadal variability modes are predictable in the 2-5 year range. This is consistent with significant predictive skill found in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation over a similar timescale. The dependency of forecast skill on ocean initialization is analysed, revealing a strong impact of details of ocean data assimilation products on the system predictive skill. This points to the need of reducing the large uncertainties that currently affect global ocean reanalyses, in the perspective of providing reliable near-term climate predictions. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN): Open Access Repository Journal of Geophysical Research 116 D19 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN): Open Access Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftopenaccessrep |
language |
English |
topic |
FP7 Environment (including Climate Change) European Commission EC SP1-Cooperation Earth-Surface Processes Ecology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Space and Planetary Science Palaeontology Forestry Aquatic Science Atmospheric Science Soil Science Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics Oceanography Water Science and Technology |
spellingShingle |
FP7 Environment (including Climate Change) European Commission EC SP1-Cooperation Earth-Surface Processes Ecology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Space and Planetary Science Palaeontology Forestry Aquatic Science Atmospheric Science Soil Science Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics Oceanography Water Science and Technology Bellucci, A. Gualdi, S. Masina, S. Storto, A. Scoccimarro, E. Cagnazzo, C. Fogli, P. Manzini, E. Navarra, A. Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses |
topic_facet |
FP7 Environment (including Climate Change) European Commission EC SP1-Cooperation Earth-Surface Processes Ecology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Space and Planetary Science Palaeontology Forestry Aquatic Science Atmospheric Science Soil Science Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics Oceanography Water Science and Technology |
description |
We investigate the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast modes. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-member ensembles of 30-year simulations, starting at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2005, using historical radiative forcing conditions for the 1960-2005 period, followed by RCP4. 5 scenario settings for the 2006-2035 period. The ocean initial states are provided by ocean reanalyses differing by assimilation methods and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean reanalyses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system appears to be driven to large extent by trends in the radiative forcing. However, after detrending, a residual skill over specific regions of the ocean emerges in the near-term. Specifically, natural fluctuations in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) associated with large-scale multi-decadal variability modes are predictable in the 2-5 year range. This is consistent with significant predictive skill found in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation over a similar timescale. The dependency of forecast skill on ocean initialization is analysed, revealing a strong impact of details of ocean data assimilation products on the system predictive skill. This points to the need of reducing the large uncertainties that currently affect global ocean reanalyses, in the perspective of providing reliable near-term climate predictions. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bellucci, A. Gualdi, S. Masina, S. Storto, A. Scoccimarro, E. Cagnazzo, C. Fogli, P. Manzini, E. Navarra, A. |
author_facet |
Bellucci, A. Gualdi, S. Masina, S. Storto, A. Scoccimarro, E. Cagnazzo, C. Fogli, P. Manzini, E. Navarra, A. |
author_sort |
Bellucci, A. |
title |
Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses |
title_short |
Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses |
title_full |
Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses |
title_fullStr |
Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses |
title_sort |
decadal climate predictions with a coupled oagcm initialized with oceanic reanalyses |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://www.openaccessrepository.it/record/21888 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015394 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://www.openaccessrepository.it/record/21888 doi:10.1029/2010JD015394 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015394 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research |
container_volume |
116 |
container_issue |
D19 |
_version_ |
1766135512830050304 |