Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?

• Published in: Risk Analysis
• Main Authors: Basili, Marcello, Franzini, Maurizio
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2006
• Subjects: Physiology (medical); Safety; Risk; Reliability and Quality; Avian flu
• Online Access: https://www.openaccessrepository.it/record/193116; https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00761.x

The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decisionâ€making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the soâ€called αâ€maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.