The Space Weather impact on Arctic Navigation (SWAN) project Development of operational forecasts of space weather impacts on GNSS

• Main Authors: Stanley Jacobsen, Knut, Fabbro, Vincent, Mainvis, Aymeric, Zakharov, Igor, Angling, Matthew, Savastano, Giorgio, Lundahl Thomsen, Pel, Linden-Vornle, Michael, Hogas Skjaeveland, Arnlaug, Bregnhoj Nielsen, Jonas, Ouassou, Mohammed
• Other Authors: DEMR, ONERA, Université de Toulouse Toulouse, ONERA-PRES Université de Toulouse
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2022
• Subjects: [PHYS]Physics [physics]; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04462913; https://hal.science/hal-04462913/document; https://hal.science/hal-04462913/file/DEMR2022-067.pdf

International audience The forecast of Space Weather events is becoming more and more important as the reliance on space-based systems is increased. Reliable and timely forecasts can allow mitigating actions to be taken in order to reduce disruptive or harmful consequences of space weather disturbances. The objective of the Space Weather impact on Arctic Navigation (SWAN) project is the development of forecasts for impacts of space weather disturbances on satellite navigation services in the Arctic region. The SWAN project is part of the efforts of the European Space Agency (ESA) to provide monitoring and forecasts of space weather effects in Europe. Two approaches have been considered for the development of operational forecasts; An empirical approach based on prior work by project partners, and a novel machine learning approach. This paper reports on the developments performed during the project, the results obtained from the validation of the developed approaches to forecasts, and the forecast service which is the main result of the project.