North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales.
The variability of cyclone activity at interannual and decadal-to-multidecadal time-scales is examined. First, interannual cyclone variability is classified into three major modes based on a VARIMAX Rotated Principal Component Analysis (VRPC) of CDF anomalies. Differences between the new CDF modes a...
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ftoklahomaunivs:oai:shareok.org:11244/734 2023-05-15T17:30:10+02:00 North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales. El Hamly, Mostafa. Lamb, Peter J. 2004 xi, 294 leaves : application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11244/734 unknown OU Thesis and Dissertation Collections http://hdl.handle.net/11244/734 Physical Oceanography Physics Atmospheric Science Statistics Cyclone tracks Climatic changes North Atlantic oscillation Thesis 2004 ftoklahomaunivs 2023-01-25T21:14:36Z The variability of cyclone activity at interannual and decadal-to-multidecadal time-scales is examined. First, interannual cyclone variability is classified into three major modes based on a VARIMAX Rotated Principal Component Analysis (VRPC) of CDF anomalies. Differences between the new CDF modes are emphasized in several respects (e.g., time-frequency decomposition of VRPC scores). Relationships of these unique modes to various atmospheric/oceanic circulation anomalies (in addition to NAO and ENSO) are then documented; the different physical mechanisms involved are elucidated. Further, decadal ocean-atmosphere interactions are explored via a new lead/lag CCA-based procedure. CDF also is used to re-examine the predictability of Moroccan precipitation anomalies by accounting for VRPC scores (besides NAO). Finally, new ensemble simulation of trends in LF NAO for 21st century climate changes using coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs is analyzed. The CDF and related cyclone attributes are used to compile a new climatology (including persistence) of cyclone activity. This climatology will be arguably the most accurate and representative set yet compiled. Moreover, use of a novel aspect of wavelet analysis of CDF permitted (1) separation of the high-frequency and low-frequency (LF) components of cyclone activity; and (2) full 2-D grid analyses that document spatial heterogeneity of cyclone behavior, rather than areal averaging. Most recent automated methods for detecting and tracking cyclones suffer mainly from spatio-temporal inhomogeneities. To overcome these weaknesses, a new approach was developed to construct a hybrid space- and time-smoothed surface Cyclone track Density Function (CDF) over the North Atlantic Basin on a 2° x 2° grid with 1-day time resolution (Oct--Mar, 1948/49--1998/99). The CDF field is designed to provide a better description of storm tracks rather than tracking individual storms. Development of other related fields of cyclone characteristics (e.g., intensity, moving speed, duration) is ... Thesis North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Oklahoma/Oklahoma State University: SHAREOK Repository |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Oklahoma/Oklahoma State University: SHAREOK Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftoklahomaunivs |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Physical Oceanography Physics Atmospheric Science Statistics Cyclone tracks Climatic changes North Atlantic oscillation |
spellingShingle |
Physical Oceanography Physics Atmospheric Science Statistics Cyclone tracks Climatic changes North Atlantic oscillation El Hamly, Mostafa. North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales. |
topic_facet |
Physical Oceanography Physics Atmospheric Science Statistics Cyclone tracks Climatic changes North Atlantic oscillation |
description |
The variability of cyclone activity at interannual and decadal-to-multidecadal time-scales is examined. First, interannual cyclone variability is classified into three major modes based on a VARIMAX Rotated Principal Component Analysis (VRPC) of CDF anomalies. Differences between the new CDF modes are emphasized in several respects (e.g., time-frequency decomposition of VRPC scores). Relationships of these unique modes to various atmospheric/oceanic circulation anomalies (in addition to NAO and ENSO) are then documented; the different physical mechanisms involved are elucidated. Further, decadal ocean-atmosphere interactions are explored via a new lead/lag CCA-based procedure. CDF also is used to re-examine the predictability of Moroccan precipitation anomalies by accounting for VRPC scores (besides NAO). Finally, new ensemble simulation of trends in LF NAO for 21st century climate changes using coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs is analyzed. The CDF and related cyclone attributes are used to compile a new climatology (including persistence) of cyclone activity. This climatology will be arguably the most accurate and representative set yet compiled. Moreover, use of a novel aspect of wavelet analysis of CDF permitted (1) separation of the high-frequency and low-frequency (LF) components of cyclone activity; and (2) full 2-D grid analyses that document spatial heterogeneity of cyclone behavior, rather than areal averaging. Most recent automated methods for detecting and tracking cyclones suffer mainly from spatio-temporal inhomogeneities. To overcome these weaknesses, a new approach was developed to construct a hybrid space- and time-smoothed surface Cyclone track Density Function (CDF) over the North Atlantic Basin on a 2° x 2° grid with 1-day time resolution (Oct--Mar, 1948/49--1998/99). The CDF field is designed to provide a better description of storm tracks rather than tracking individual storms. Development of other related fields of cyclone characteristics (e.g., intensity, moving speed, duration) is ... |
author2 |
Lamb, Peter J. |
format |
Thesis |
author |
El Hamly, Mostafa. |
author_facet |
El Hamly, Mostafa. |
author_sort |
El Hamly, Mostafa. |
title |
North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales. |
title_short |
North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales. |
title_full |
North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales. |
title_fullStr |
North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales. |
title_full_unstemmed |
North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales. |
title_sort |
north atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales. |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11244/734 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
OU Thesis and Dissertation Collections http://hdl.handle.net/11244/734 |
_version_ |
1766125990149357568 |